Quo Vadis Ukraine?

By Walter Derzko

So named was the title of the panel of speakers at the dinner that opened the “Ukraine at the Crossroads” conference at the prestigious Fairmont Chateau Laurier Hotel in Downtown Ottawa, March 7 and 8, 2012. The conference was labelled as an international policy forum on democracy, human rights, the rule of law, economic freedom, and foreign policy in contemporary Ukraine.

Everybody agreed that the organizing committee assembled a stellar lineup of world class speakers. In fact, I would say this was the best academic conference on Ukraine that I’ve attended in the past twenty years - not just because of the “A tier”  list of speakers, but because it had an equally intelligent, enthusiastic and informed audience. Of the over two hundred plus conference attendees, almost everyone stayed right to the very last session. The only big name “no-show” was Evhenia Tymoshenko who was rumoured to be attending the dinner but cancelled at last minute, after the Yanukovych regime allowed her to visit her mother in jail on the very same day as the conference, a tactic that was cleverly planned to prevent her from garnishing more Western media exposure on behalf of the case of Yulia Tymoshenko.

All the Ukrainian speakers, who first made presentations as witnesses at the parliamentary hearings held earlier in the week, and then at the conference forum gave the same message, presenting the critical situation in Ukraine and highlighting the backsliding on all fronts. However, Oleh Rybachuk (Kyiv), Alyona Hetmanchuk (Kyiv), Mykola Riabchuk (Kyiv) and Halyna Coynash (Kharkiv) did leave a message of “hope” stressing the strong role that civic society and non-governmental organizations play in Ukraine now.  In fact, they appear to be the de-facto “opposition” since many Ukrainians don’t trust any existing politicians and political camps. The presence and deep insights of Borys Tarasyuk (Kyiv) and Valentyn Nalyvaichenko (Kyiv) added to the prestige and credibility of this auspicious event.

I was particularly pleased with the speakers who are not Ukrainian by background. Nico Lange (Kyiv), Amanda Paul (Brussels), Thomas Melia (Washington), Anders Aslund (Washington), Ariel Cohen (Washington), Andrei Piontkovsky (Moscow), James Sherr (London) and Marcin Swiecicki (Warsaw) all gave strong and insightful presentations offering nuggets of information that many audience members noted and all took away with them.

It was a great pleasure to chat with two of Canada’s former ambassadors in Ukraine, Andrew Robinson and Derek Fraser, as well as with the Canadian Embassy’s first charg d’affaires Nestor Gayowsky, and to see that their passion for the well-being of the Ukrainian nation is unabated.

If I had to point out one weakness, I thought the presentations were quite adequate on overviews and summaries of the current situation, but fell short on policy recommendations i.e. where to go next?  I am hopeful that this was discussed in private and will be forwarded to the Canadian and other international governments. In the very last session, James Sherr from Chatham House in London, UK mentioned that surprise, game-changing events will play a critical role in the course of events this year and next in both Ukraine and Russia, but he only mentioned this after being prompted by a final question from the audience at the end of the day.

The official conference was supplemented by lively discussions in the hallways over coffee, at the final reception, at an informal dinner late Thursday night at Hy’s Steakhouse, and at the now famous, late night receptions hosted by Dr. George Foty, this time in Room 258, the Prime Ministerial Suite at the Chateau Laurier… Thanks George!

Coincidentally, the day after the Ottawa conference, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) expressed its strongly worded concerns over the continued prosecution of former members of the Ukrainian government, despite the PACE resolution on Ukraine adopted in January 2012. In particular, the Assembly does not rule out imposing sanctions against Ukraine if the Assembly’s demands are not met. This is disclosed in a statement on Ukraine made by the PACE Standing Committee on Friday, March 9, in Paris. But as of yet, they have not drawn that red line in the sand.

The conference organizers have promised to post the sessions and transcripts online and it is hoped that will stimulate ongoing debate in the community as to where Ukraine can go from here.

Walter Derzko is the Executive Director of the Strategic Foresight Institute (SFI), a private think tank in Toronto.