Democracy at “Tipping Point”: Ukraine Stands at “Crossroads”

By John Pidkowich

The conference “Ukraine at the Crossroads”, billed as an international policy forum on democracy, human rights, the rule of law, economic freedom, and foreign policy in contemporary Ukraine, was held March 7 and 8, 2012 at the Chateau Laurier Hotel in Ottawa. Under the patronage of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the conference was organized by the Canada Ukraine Foundation, Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, and the Centre for US-Ukrainian Relations. The main purpose of the conference was to bring together experts on strategic policy thinking from Canada, US, UK, European Union and some democratic institutions in Ukraine, to assess and discuss the direction Ukraine should take to remedy its major democratic and economic problems.

By having a stellar collection of experts amassed for the conference, some were available beforehand to provide Canadian MPs and the Government of Canada background information and advice on providing incentives to Ukraine to follow a path of democracy. Therefore, to help Canada determine its overall future role in Eastern European democracies, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Foreign Affair and International Development held hearings on March 5 and 7 to begin study on “the progress of rights and democracy over the past 10 years” in Ukraine.

In a quick overview, the following provides conference session topics and speakers.

The March 7 Opening Forum Dinner, given the theme “Quo Vadis Ukraine?”,  had greetings delivered by the Hon. Beverley Oda, Minister of International Cooperation, and responsible for CIDA. With moderator Chrystia Freeland – Editor, Thompson Reuters, the Keynote Speakers were: Borys Tarasyuk – Chair VR Committee on European Integration, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine; Thomas O. Melia – Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (Washington, DC); Hon. Marcin Swiecicki – Member of Polish Sejm, former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations (Warsaw); and the Hon. Peter van Loan – Government House Leader, Canada.

At the official conference opening the next morning on March 8, remarks were made by Eugene Czolij, President of the Ukrainian World Congress, and Paul Grod, UCC President. The Opening Speaker was Oleh Rybachuk – Chairman and co-founder of NGO “Centre UA” (Kyiv) who spoke on the topic “The State of Democracy in Ukraine”.

Session I on Democratic Governance, Rule of Law, Human Rights and Media Freedom was moderated by former Ambassador Andrew Robinson with speakers: Mykola Riabchuk – Krytyka (Kyiv); Halya Coynash – Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group; and Danylo Bilak – CMS Cameron McKenna (Kyiv). The session’s discussant was Thomas O. Melia.

Session II on The New Election Law and the 2012 Parliamentary Elections was moderated by Dr. Bohdan Harasymiw with speakers: Alyona Hetmanchuk – Institute of World Policy (Kyiv); Bohdan A. Futey, Federal Judge and Constitutional Expert (Washington, DC); and Markian Shwec – UCC-CUF Observer Mission. The discussant was Nico Lange – Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (Kyiv).

The Plenary Luncheon Speaker was James Sherr – Royal Institute of International Affairs; Senior Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Programme, Chatham House (London) who spoke on the topic “Ukraine and the Russian Question”. The moderator was Robert Amsterdam, international lawyer, and the discussant was Andrei A. Piontkovsky – Russian Academy of Sciences, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute.

Session III on Economic Issues: Energy, Economic Freedom and Corruption was moderated by Morgan Williams – Chair, US-Ukraine Business Council with speakers: Dr. Anders Aslund – Peterson Institute (Washington, DC); and Zenon Potoczny, President, Canada Ukraine Chamber of Commerce. The discussant was Dr. Serhiy Kudelia – Visiting Scholar, George Washington University.

Session IV on Geopolitics and National Security was moderated by Derek Fraser – former Ambassador, with speakers: Valentyn Nalyvaichenko – Past Head Security Service of Ukraine (SBU); Amanda Paul – European Policy Centre (Brussels); Dr. Ariel Cohen – Heritage Foundation (Washington, DC); Ihor Kozak – former Canadian and NATO military officer/diplomat; and James Sherr.

“Crossroads”, in the opinion of Dr. Walter Zaryckyj from the Centre of US Ukrainian Relations, brought together the most political and intellectual firepower of any conference on Ukraine in the last 40 years. Participants included representatives from Canada, the United States and the European Union, the cornerstones of Euro-Atlantic cooperation, as well as some of Ukraine’s most articulate players in democracy who offer the country direction and encourage it to choose European values, even advocating EU integration.

The outcome of the conference in part was to provide “Ukraine’s Report Card” on its efforts over the last several years to develop democratic electoral processes, governance and establish the requisite institutions. However, in no small part, the conference stressed the importance of external factors impinging on Ukraine’s internal development. Russia views Ukraine’s 2005-2009 Orange Years as “anarchistic” which ground to a halt in 2010 with the election of President Viktor Yanukovych. His measures to appease Russia, either on his own initiative or by pressure from Russia, such as the terms extending the lease of the Russian Black Sea Fleet naval base in Crimea, have weakened his “house of cards”. Yanukovych’s “sultan-like behaviour” and consolidation of power as a “political family” has further weakened his position, with approval rate and electoral support slipping, particularly in his home base in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk), and in the eyes of Ukraine’s business oligarchs.

The question of Russia’s election of Vladimir Putin as President on March 4 and its influence on Ukraine was raised a number of times during the conference, first by James Sherr. He warned that Putin’s “re-election” had not been met by a show of international discontent, although not proven, could simply be a lack of concern. However, what does appear clear is that Putin feels good about his re-election. Robert Amsterdam and Ariel Cohen took this disposition one step further warning about Putin’s consolidation of Russian political power, and economic grab of material wealth, which they speculate could extend to Ukraine.

An important point made and not to be overlooked is the “firepower” of the Ukrainian diaspora. As noted by Amanda Paul and Markian Shwec, support from the two-million plus world-wide Ukrainian “hromada” plays a significant role in building a civil society in Ukraine, i.e. now familiar election observer missions, as does direct support from governments and NGO activities. In addition, a recent oped article in the International Herald Tribune by a set of international ministers sends a strong message of encouragement to the Ukrainian political leadership, in government and in opposition, to show fortitude to act in the best interests for Ukraine (and not for themselves), but “to do what’s right”.

Looking ahead in advance of Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections in Fall 2012, Prof. Dominique Arel from the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, raised three points on “unknowns”. First, the extent to which there will be election violations is based on the degree of boldness to act with impunity. Second, the intent of the current Yanukovych administration to falsify voting in Western and Central Ukraine, akin to the manipulation of results in eastern and southern Ukraine in the 2004 elections. Third, the positive impact of mass mobilization as seen in 2004 by a vision of Ukraine without Leonid Kuchma.

In the closing words of Bob Onyschuk, Chair of the Canada Ukraine Foundation, Ukraine really is at the “Crossroads” of its relatively young independence, the upcoming 2012 elections being crucial for Ukrainians to choose their country’s future direction, that of between “East” and “West”, authoritarianism or democracy, kleptocracy or the rule of law etc.

Appreciation was expressed to the conference organizing committee volunteers and gratitude expressed to sponsors Andrew and Vera Witer, BCU Foundation, Caravan Logistics, Community Trust, Olzhych Foundation in Canada, Shelton Canada, The Temerty Family Foundation, and Ukrainian Credit Union Ltd.

Video-taped conference proceedings, delivered talk/speech texts and a short form written summary of sessions will be available by visiting www.ucc.ca

PHOTOS

1 – L. to R.: Chrystia Freeland, Hon. Peter van Loan, Borys Tarasyuk, Hon. Marcin Swiecicki, Thomas Melia

2 – L. to R.: Andrew Robinson, Mykola Riabchuk, Halyna Coynash, Danylo Bilak, Thomas Melia

3 – L. to R.: Markian Shwec, Judge Bohdan Futey, Alyona Hetmanchuk, Nico Lange

4 – L. to R.: James Sherr, Andrei Piontkovsky

5 – Oleh Rybachuk

6 – Robert Amsterdam

7 – Canadian Members of Parliament and Senate

8 – L. to R.: Dr. Anders Aslund, Morgan Williams, Zenon Potoczny, Dr. Serhiy Kudelia

9 – L. to R.: Derek Fraser, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Amanda Paul, Dr. Ariel Cohen, Ihor Kozak, James Sherr