Spring

By Walter Kish

Spring has come once more to Ukraine and Easter again brings hope for new life and resurrection, not only in the religious sphere but also in the economic and political spheres as well.  Hope, unfortunately, is about all most Ukrainians have these days, as their economy, their jobs, their savings and their faith in their politicians have all but disappeared in the wake of the latest series of crises.

Ukraine is bankrupt.  Ukraine’s GDP is forecasted to shrink by about 9% this year. Inflation is rearing its ugly head again.  Unemployment is soaring. The majority of Ukrainians are either not working, working reduced hours, or even if they are working, many are not getting paid.  Many Ukrainians have had their bank accounts frozen as large numbers of Ukraine’s banks teeter on the brink of failure. Large scale protests are spreading throughout the country. Faith in the current political leaders and the political system in general, is sinking faster than the value of the Hryvnia.  Support for President Yushchenko is hovering only a few percentage points above “figu z makom”.

With all this as background, I turned to my cousin Hryts, my personal oracle from the village of Pidkamin, and coincidentally, producer of the finest horseradish in Western Ukraine.  Hryts’s fame in this regard is well known in the region and amongst Pidkaminites he is better known as Horseradish Hryts. His “khrin” is legendary and has been touted as being able to cure everything from hangovers to infertility.  I can personally vouch for the fact that it is also the most effective nasal decongestant I have ever tried for my perennial allergy afflictions.

Be that as it may, on my last call to Pidkamin, I was more interested in getting his assessment on the current state of things in Ukraine.

“So Hrytsiu,” I asked, “How do you see things shaping up in the coming months?”

“Well,” he started off in his laid back style, “I guess it depends on the weather. We’ve been having a fair bit of rain, so if that continues, we may have some difficulty with the spring planting.”

“No, no Hrytsiu,” I shot back, “I don’t mean that – I was asking about the economic and political situation!”

“Ech!” he exclaimed disdainfully, “Why do you waste your time on that my young turnip!  It’s always the same – the political structure gets more and more ineffective and corrupt, while the economy only serves to make the oligarchs richer and the working man poorer. Better that you devote your time to something more productive.”

“And what is that?” I asked naively.

“Why it’s that time of year when all good Ukrainians should be thinking of how they are going to do their spring planting – where their potatoes are going to go, how much garlic and how many onions to plant, whether they have enough fertilizer, whether the shovels and hoes are in working shape, and most important, whether the back will take another season of planting and weeding. That’s what’s really important.”

“But what about the fall in the GDP, the possibility of Ukraine defaulting on its foreign debt, the devaluation of the Hryvnia, the …”

At that point Hryts had had enough.

“Listen, turnip brain” he interrupted, “Regardless of anything else, people still need to eat. You can take your GDP and use it to fertilize my garlic plants!  When push comes to shove you can’t eat government bonds, IMF guarantees, corporate shares, futures options or Hryvnia exchange rates.  You want a good investment – invest in some seeds, some labour and good manure and I guarantee you that by the end of the summer you will be eating potato pancakes and cabbage until it comes out your ears!”

“Well, I suppose you’re right…” I stammered, “But aren’t you at all worried about the political situation?”

“Bah!” he shot back, “Even politicians need to eat, and when they do, they come to people like me to ensure their rotund bellies remain filled!  So my little burachok, how much garlic are you going to plant this year?”