What’s Going On in Ukraine?

By Walter Kish

As most of you are undoubtedly aware, Ukraine is once more sinking into a deep political pothole. Last week President Yushchenko, though egregiously late, at last realized that Prime Minister Yanukovich and his cronies filling out the government of Ukraine had no intention of sharing power with him as spelled out in the constitution of this country supposed to be run jointly by the president and parliament. Aside from the fact that these underhanded motivations became clear a year ago to anyone with even a modicum of political awareness when Yushchenko allowed Yanukovich to come to power, I suppose one should be grateful that he realized the truth of the matter at all. I still find it incredible, albeit frustrating, that such an intelligent and apparently honourable man as Yushchenko, could be so naпve or incompetent when it comes to practical political matters. Yet, it has been plain for the past two years that he is clearly in way over his head, and as a consequence has dragged Ukraine and its beleaguered citizens through two years of political turmoil and suffering.

Yanukovich and his gang are of course self-righteously claiming that the dissolution of parliament is unconstitutional and refuse to be “dissolved.” Although they may have a technical argument calling into doubt the constitutionality of Yushchenko’s move, their emotive indignation is somewhat laughable considering that their rule for the past year is one long string of manipulations and maneuvers that have flouted constitutional provisions with abandon. The publicized histrionics is all theatre of course, masking a much more ruthless and sinister power struggle.

The crux of the matter is the naпve assumption Yushchenko made last year when he attempted to work out a constructive, power-sharing working relationship with Yanukovich and the oligarch-controlled parliamentary coalition. It ignored the essential fact that to most of the movers and shakers in Ukraine, politics is a zero sum game – that is to say, it is an all or nothing endeavour. Compromise and cooperation are either unknown concepts to people like Yanukovich and Azarov, or at best temporary stratagems until they can assume complete control and dispense with the pretense.

Yushchenko’s belated action last week resets the political game back to square one. Interestingly enough, it is probably the first time that Yushchenko has caught Yanukovich by surprise. Up until now the “blue” Viktor has been metaphorically slapping the President around, eroding his stature and power day by day, contemptuously treating him like a nuisance rather than a head of state. And until last week, the “orange” Victor, aside from affronted but ineffective protestations, has been taking it on the chin – leading Yanukovich to believe that he could get away with anything with impunity, that Victor Yushchenko was nothing more than a paper tiger. Last week Yushchenko finally roared, and for the first time in a year, Yanukovich was caught off-guard.

It now remains to be seen how much spine Yushchenko has actually rediscovered. He must aggressively expand on his temporary advantage, and he can only do this if he can effectively unify all the remaining anti-Regions forces into a determined and cooperative political force. This is also a golden opportunity to sow some discord amongst the current ruling coalition forces. The Regions party is not as unified and monolithic as it seems. It is a restive alliance of competing oligarchs and business interests that is vulnerable to adroit exploitation. Yushchenko may lack the political savvy to do so, but if he could come to terms with Yulia Tymoshenko, she would know what to do.

All political crises are also opportunities, and this one presents Yushchenko with the chance to prove to the nation that he has learned something from the errors and missteps he has made these past two years. He has finally made the right move; hopefully it is not too late. Perhaps there is still a chance for the original ideals of the Maidan to be realized.

The practical, realistic side of me says “too little, too late,” but the romantic, idealistic spirit in me wants to shout out – “give ‘em hell, Victor!”