Coalition in Crisis

By Walter Kish

From the very first days of the latest coalition that brought Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to power, it was obvious that its days were numbered.  Although Tymoshenko was the clear victor in the preceding elections, a politically myopic President Victor Yushchenko refused to concede to her both the political and moral authority to govern that the electorate had so clearly given to her.

Since then, President Yushchenko has been waging an unrelenting campaign to try and undermine Tymoshenko’s rule.  He has never accepted the recent transformation of Ukraine’s governmental system from a strong Presidential model to one more based on parliamentary rule, and the corresponding shift in political power from the President to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. It is obvious that he would like to restore the strong centralized presidential power structure that was eroded through the enforced deal spawned during the crisis brought on by the original Orange Revolution.  To do so however, would require a two thirds majority of Parliament to approve the appropriate constitutional amendments, a scenario that is hardly likely, since none of the existing political parties would even remotely consider limiting their own parliamentary authority in favour of the President.  The memories of former President Leonid Kuchma’s regime and his abuse of power are still too fresh.

President Yushchenko has tried to do an end run around Parliament by setting up a National Constitutional Council and proposing to push through the required changes by means of a national referendum; however, the country’s Constitutional Court last week decisively ruled against this scheme, saying categorically that any constitutional changes had to go through the official Parliamentary approval process.

Since coming to power, Tymoshenko has pursued an ambitious program of social policies, increased privatizations and aggressive anti-corruption measures that have seen her popularity increase significantly.  Interestingly, President Yushchenko, who at one time espoused strong support for similar reform initiatives, has regressed into a reactionary caricature, belligerently attacking Tymoshenko’s efforts through his Chief of Staff Victor Baloha.  Through public statements and postings on the Presidential web site, Baloha has mounted an increasingly strident and vitriolic attack on Tymoshenko, her programs and policies.  Not surprisingly, all recent polls indicate that this effort has backfired in a big way, with Tymoshenko’s popularity continuing to rise while Yushchenko’s continues to plummet.

Nonetheless, President Yushchenko incomprehensibly continues to wage political battle with Tymoshenko and her BYuT party.  He has interfered in Tymoshenko’s negotiations with Russia on gas supplies that sought to revamp a thoroughly corrupt system of middlemen. He has issued numerous edicts countermanding cabinet decisions. He has appointed a former discredited Kuchma crony Stepan Hawrysh and Party of Regions bigwig Raisa Bohatyrova to the National Security and Defence Council.  When Tymoshenko recently dismissed the Head of the State Property Fund, Valentyna Semeniuk, citing charges of corruption, Yushchenko immediately tried to veto the move and reinstate her.  The political situation in Ukraine is degenerating into a farce.

The current speculation is that the Yushchenko – Tymoshenko conflict will come to a head in May with the unravelling of the current coalition.  Tymoshenko is now in a position where she is confident that a new election would sweep her back into power without the need of a coalition or support from Yushchenko or the Our Ukraine party.  Most political analysts in Ukraine foresee the final dissolution of the Our Ukraine faction, with a significant number of its members defecting to the Tymoshenko camp.

Although many Ukrainians thought that Tymoshenko was gearing her political activities for her own run at the Presidency in the next elections, it now seems that her long term strategy is moving in a different direction.  Last week, she announced that she will be submitting a proposal for constitutional changes to the Verkhovna Rada that will transform Ukraine’s political system into a parliamentary republic.  The role of the President would become largely ceremonial.

This is the beginning of the end for President Yushchenko and the beginning of a new era for Ukraine as a parliamentary democracy.