Yushchenko Learns to Play the Political Power Game

By Wolodymyr Derzko

In the past two weeks, Yushchenko and his democratic allies have shown that they can create the upper hand over the Party of Regions -- applying the rules or axioms of power.

One key axiom of power is “Never put too much trust in your friends and learn how to use your enemies. Be wary of your friends –they will betray you more quickly, for they are easily aroused to envy. But hire a former enemy and he will be more loyal than a friend, because he has more to prove.” So goes the logic. Yushchenko has learned this lesson after a year of infighting within his inner circle.  Now he has hired a professional manager -- Victor Baloha to run the Presidential Secretariat. His shrewdest strategic move was to appoint Svyatoslav Piskun as the Prosecutor General for a third time, using a legal trick to re-install him.  A local court in Kyiv had suddenly ruled on April 26 that Piskun must be re-appointed. The President quickly accepted the ruling, avoiding the need to go to Parliament for endorsement. Publicly, even Piskun seemed surprised. But this clever move reflects that Yushchenko and Piskun may have coordinated a secret deal.  “We made many mistakes and many of our actions and steps were not quite lawful but taken to benefit certain political forces.  I believe such things are in the past now and the Office will strictly adhere to the Constitution and laws.” said Piskun.  He reassured the President that his Office will “play the first violin” in coordinating Ukraine’s law enforcement bodies. This was also signalled by Yushchenko on the weekend when he addressed Yanukovych supporters in European Square in Kyiv.

Do not be surprised to see charges against Moroz - the House Speaker and Yanukovych for defying the first presidential decree and against other long-standing political refugees such as the ex-Governor of Sumy Oblast, Vladimir Shcherban, and ex-Head of the State Department on Presidential Affairs, Igor Bakay. Whether they will stick in court is a different matter. But laying charges may be good enough to discredit the Prime Minister and the Speaker in the eyes of loyal Party of Regions and Socialist voters before or during the next election.

The next axiom of power is mastering the art of timing. Here the logic flows as follows: Never seem to be in a hurry - betrays a lack of control over yourself and over time. Yushchenko’s announcement of his second decree came when both Moroz and Yanukovych were travelling abroad, catching them both off guard, and allowing for widespread uninterrupted coverage on the evening news before the Party of Regions had time to react.

Another axiom of power is creating opportunity windows for yourself.  Under what circumstances will a political situation develop to your advantage? Again Yushchenko can turn to the Russians who are one of the best players at designing political situations that suit their needs and ends.

Remember in 1999, when Boris Yeltsin was toppled and an ex-FSB Director, Vladimir Putin became Russia’s new President?  Putin gained immediate power and control right after 300 Russians were killed in mysterious Moscow apartment bombings, which the FSB blamed on Chechen “terrorists.” In his book Blowing Up Russia, former FSB Agent Alexander Litvinenko, who was recently deliberately poisoned and died in London, detailed how the bombings were a “false red flag operation” orchestrated to provoke a new war in Chechnya. The Yushchenko team needs to go on the offence, designing positive and legal opportunity windows for the democrats and to keep the opposition off-guard and off balance. I suspect these may be in the works for the upcoming elections.

One more axiom of power is to be regal in your own fashion. Act like a king to be treated like one. In the long run, appearing vulgar and common will make people disrespect you. That is how many people are viewing Yanukovych despite his American PR polish. I’m astonished that after all that has happened to Yushchenko (falsified elections, dioxin poisoning and a lack of a prosecution and broken promises), the public civility with which he treats Yanukovych is amazing.  This shows the President’s true strength of character – a sign of a real political gentleman.

Finally, an axiom of power that Yushchenko must be aware of is “Strike the Shepherd and the sheep will scatter.” The weakest link in his plan is Yulia Tymoshenko. The Russians and the Party of Regions are fully cognoscente of this. Tymoshenko is a thorn in the side of more than one business clan in Ukraine and the Russian government in general. Unsuccessful attempts on her life were made during the last Presidential election and her removal from the political picture is the biggest threat to Yushchenko’s coalition plans in the next election.

Wolodymyr Derzko is an Associate of CERES, Munk Centre, University of Toronto and an expert on strategic thinking, planning and foresight.