From Arab Spring to Ukrainian Summer?

By Walter Derzko 

As Ukrainians finish celebrating Easter Holidays and follow Azarov’s call to dutifully head out to their gardens to plant potatoes and other vegetables, the question on everybody’s mind is whether we will see a repeat of not just the Fall 2010 entrepreneur and tax demonstrations, but this time, rallies that encompass a wider swath of the entire population?

In what the media has “christened” the Arab Spring, we remember the exhilarating days of mass protests in Tahrir Square that eventually  led to the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Before that, the tragic death of a street vendor in Tunisia triggered mass protests and eventual government overthrow. From Tunisia and Egypt, these uprisings have spread across the Middle East and North Africa into Libya, Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. This process is part of a “global political awakening” that was first described by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft in a 2008 book entitled America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy. The theme was that a global process of change was underway and that the basics of US Foreign Policy needed to be re-imagined by the next US President. In the introduction, the central insight of these two former national security advisors was outlined this way: “Both men describe a political revolution that’s sweeping the world - Brzezinski speaks of a global awakening, while Scowcroft describes a yearning for dignity. They want America on the side of that process of change.”

Initially, we saw mass protests in over 30 countries around the world in the depth of the 2008 recession due to massive food and energy price hikes, but it didn’t result in the next step; changes in government regimes.

But now, as the economic recovery has stalled in both developed and developing countries, we are now seeing the full force of this political awakening. Political scientists see this as a gradual shift from ambivalence or fear in the general population, to anger and outrage, to finally action.

Are Ukrainians ready to take to the streets again against the Party of Regions and the Yanukovych regime? Polls point to that fact that many are past the fear stage and are outraged enough to take action. Almost half of Ukrainians (45.3%) have said they are ready to participate in protests, according to a new poll “Protest Moods of Ukrainians” released at the end of March. That’s twice as many as those polled during the Orange Revolution. In addition, 36% of Ukrainians said a rise in prices for goods and services could make them take part in protests. A quarter of those polled (25.8%) said that the reason for this could be the late payment of salaries (pensions, student grants), and a fifth (19.4%) said it could be unemployment or the threat of job loss. Some 17.1% of the respondents said they would participate in rallies if there was a high level of corruption, 14.8% would take part in protests if there were violations of civil rights and freedoms, and 7.7% if there was an unstable political situation in the country. Some 3.3% of the respondents would participate in rallies for other reasons, and 7.3% failed to answer. At the same time, still over a quarter of Ukrainians (26.1%) said they would not participate in protests under any circumstances.

Last week, Azarov warned that 2011 will be the most difficult year in Ukrainian history, due to massive debt repayment obligations – 90 billion hryvnia, a third of Ukraine’s budget. Food prices in Ukraine have spiked 30-35% according to Yulia Tymoshenko, contradicting the official government figures in the 8% range. Basic staples, such as buckwheat have disappeared from store shelves. Ukraine now paid 2.5 times more than planned for Chinese buckwheat, making the purchase without a tender. The government is threatening to raise vodka prices by 55%. As well, ongoing ubiquitous corruption, voting scandals in the Verkhovna Rada with ghost votes, and the recent media revelations about the illegal wealth of many of Ukraine’s oligarchs has lead to much outrage. Now, Ukrainian NGO watchdog groups that keep an eye on government, are threatened by proposed legislation that bans foreign funding of Ukrainian NGOs, a move that will likely halt Ukraine’s entry into the European Union.

Several grass root groups have sprung up spontaneously such as “Spilna Sprava” that is calling for mass protests on May 14^th (see http://www.spilnasprava.com/wp/?p=2653). Over 70 NGOs and trade unions from 17 regions of Ukraine have announced their plans, as of May 6, to join a spring march on May 19. So, if we do see a new revolution, it won’t be another Orange one but likely a Hrechka (buckwheat) and Vodka Revolt, due to a general political awakening and a yearning for dignity.

Walter Derzko is a Senior Fellow at the Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab), and a lecturer in the MA program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD) University in Toronto.