Strategy and Tactics of Euro-Atlantic Integration

By Taras Kuzio, Hryhoriy Perepylytsya and Walter Zaryckyj

Excerpts from an opinion article on how Ukraine can join both NATO and the EU if the country follows four pro-active steps, in the Kyiv Post, January 9, 2008

Ukraine’s path to Trans-Atlantic and European integration has not been as rapid as envisaged following the Orange Revolution. After the Sept. 2007 Parliamentary Elections, an Orange Coalition was established with a government headed by Yulia Tymoshenko. If an Orange Coalition and "orange" President can maintain political unity for the short term (until the 2009 Presidential Elections) and medium term (until the next parliamentary elections in 2012) the next five years could constitute an important breakthrough in Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy, including its integration into the full range of Trans-Atlantic and European structures.

Ukraine’s Relations with NATO

In April 2008 at NATO’s Bucharest summit, three Western Balkan states – Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia – will be invited to join NATO. All three have had Membership Action Plans (MAPs) since 1999-2002. The only remaining former Yugoslav state still seeking NATO membership is possibly Montenegro which may receive an invitation to join a MAP at the 2008 summit. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia are disinterested in NATO membership.

In NATO’s decade-long enlargement process its major test will be to enlarge the organization into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Although four countries belong to the GUAM regional organization (comprised of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) only two of them – Georgia and Ukraine – seek to join NATO. Until the autumn 2007 political crisis in Georgia, it was assumed that the country was on target to receive a MAP at the 2008 NATO summit.

Ukraine’s Relations with the EU

Ukraine’s relations with the EU are very different to those of NATO. Whereas NATO has always held an open door to Ukraine’s potential membership the EU has undertaken double standards and lack of strategic vision. Nevertheless, NATO membership has traditionally been a stepping stone to EU membership, for all post-communist states. Ukraine cannot follow the path of EU neutral members Ireland, Austria, Sweden and Finland who do not desire NATO membership.

The countries of the CIS were never slated for EU membership after the collapse of Communism and membership was only offered to Central-Eastern European countries and the Baltic States. Within this group of countries, the slower reformers did not perform much better than Ukraine. Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria had similar difficulties in their post-communist transitions of slow reform, entrenched post-communist elites, corruption and weak democratic reformers. The advantage these three countries had was that the EU offered them membership which encouraged reform.

Towards a European Strategy

Ukraine has a strong possibility of completing its integration into Trans-Atlantic and European structures within the next decade. In the short term, the following steps need to be taken:

1. Coordinate a MAP and NATO membership with Georgia bilaterally and through GUAM and the US.

2. Ukraine should have a large delegation of policy advisors, government and presidential officials, parliamentary deputies, journalists and NGO leaders at the April 2008 NATO Bucharest summit. There should not be a repeat of the Nov. 2006 Riga NATO summit attended by only three Ukrainians (including only one official).

3. The Ukraine-NATO Committee NGO, to be officially launched by ourselves in Jan. 2008 with members drawn from Ukraine, Europe and North America, is open to membership by all NGO’s and individuals who support Ukraine’s Trans-Atlantic aspirations. The Ukraine-NATO Committee will lobby for Ukraine’s NATO membership and coordinate the work of a disparate group of NGO’s, practitioners and journalists who support its aims and objectives.

4. Ukraine’s presidential, govern-ment and parliamentary elites have the opportunity to establish a cross-party and cross-regional consensus in support of a Ukrainian position towards the EU. Both the Orange Coalition and parliamentary opposition would be able to agree on a common negotiating position towards the EU that is commensurate with Ukraine’s strategic importance and its progress in democratic and economic reforms. Since 2005, Ukraine is the only CIS country defined as ‘Free’ by the New York-based think tank Freedom House. Ukraine has every right to be treated in the same manner as Romania, Bulgaria, the Western Balkans and Turkey, and Ukraine should not join any ENP or Privileged Partnership if there is no prospect of future membership of the EU. Ukraine has every right to demand to be treated in the same manner as the Western Balkan states whose Stabilization and Accession Agreements hold out future membership prospects. Failure to do so would constitute punishment for Ukraine having resolved its regional and ethnic conflicts in a peaceful manner.

Dr. Taras Kuzio is a Research Associate, Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University; Professor Hryhoriy Perepylytsya is Director, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine; Professor Walter Zaryckyj of New York University and Executive Director of the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations.