Gas Wars

The news from Europe the week ending January 10 was dominated by the latest power play by the Russians over natural gas, with Ukraine being the intended victim of some rather crude and overt intimidation.  As usual, the Russians only succeeded in reinforcing their reputation as bullies and untrustworthy players in the global marketplace.

The latest problem arose from what has now become an annual dispute over the pricing of Russian natural gas being supplied to an energy dependent Ukraine.  This seemingly commercial issue has become overlaid by an increasingly belligerent political agenda whereby Moscow is using the gas supply as leverage to discourage Ukraine from pursuing closer ties with Europe and the West.  In essence, what they are saying is toe the line or we will double or triple the price of the gas we are supplying you.

Fortunately, Ukraine has its own cards to play.  Russia is also Europe’s primary supplier of natural gas and 80% of that gas has to flow through Ukrainian transit pipelines to get to Europe.  So, understandably, Ukraine has told Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his autocratic minions that if they raise the price of gas, then they will correspondingly raise the transit fees that Russia pays Ukraine for passage of that gas through its territory.  Between reasonable commercial partners, this type of dispute would be solved by some sort of equitable compromise that benefits both parties.  As we all know though, the Russians throughout history have seldom been reasonable partners in anything. They don’t just want to win in this dispute – they want Ukraine to lose.  Of course, it is perfectly justifiable for them to raise the price of gas whenever they want, but for Ukraine to even dare raise their transit prices in response is somehow reprehensible.

Knowing that the gas they supply to Ukraine goes into the same pipeline that supplies Europe, and that they have no way of selectively stopping the supply of gas to just Ukraine, the Russians shut down the supply of all gas entering the Ukrainian pipelines, thereby cutting off most of the supplies to Europe as well.  In doing this, they in effect shot themselves in the foot.  Although the Russians are proclaiming loudly and belligerently that this gas disruption is all the fault of Ukraine, virtually nobody is buying their propaganda.  It is evident to all that Russia is using economic strong arm tactics to cow Ukraine, with Europe being made hostage to Putin’s increasingly xenophobic foreign policy.

Although at week’s end, an interim compromise agreement had been reached which would see gas flowing to Europe again within the following days, most European countries are now convinced that they had better seriously start looking for alternate sources of gas.  It is obvious that depending on the Russians is not a wise long-term strategy, whether it be gas or anything else for that matter.

None of this should be a surprise to anyone who is familiar with Russian history.  For the better part of the last millennium, control, intimidation, conquest and oppression have been the only strategies employed by whomever made up the ruling autocratic elite of the Russian state.  Whether under the Tsars, the Communists, or the current Putin police state, Russian politics has always been dominated by self-interest and domination.  Compromise, cooperation, negotiation and integration into a larger European or global community are concepts that have historically been completely foreign to the ruling Russian mindset.

Apologists for the Russians claim that much of what the Russians do in the realm of foreign relations is an understandable reaction against the perception that they are surrounded by hostile forces, NATO being a prime example.  It would behoove the Russians to look realistically upon their behaviour towards their neighbours and the rest of the world.  Perhaps the reason that no one likes or trusts them is because they are, in plain and simple terms, petulant bullies, and this latest brouhaha over gas is a prime example.