Europe Backs Yulia Tymoshenko

By Taras Kuzio

The December 2009 European Peoples Party (EPP) Congress in Bonn endorsed presidential candidates in Ukraine who support the continuation of the country’s democratic path and integration into Europe. Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivschina (Fatherland) Party and Our Ukraine are members of the centre-right EPP, the largest political group in the European Parliament.

The EPP clearly understood Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych to be a representative of the ancien regime having never shown interest and who would undermine Ukraine’s integration into Europe. The Party of Regions has no ties to the European Parliament but has a cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin’s Unified Russia Party.

Of the main candidates from the former “Orange” camp who could pursue European integration, the EPP and European Parliament clearly support Prime Minister Tymoshenko who attended the EPP summit. They recognize that Tymoshenko is the strongest candidate from the former “Orange” camp and the only one who could defeat Yanukovych.

Another factor is the advent of Yushchenko-fatigue in Europe which has led to cool relations between President Viktor Yushchenko and Brussels-Strasbourg and between Our Ukraine and the EPP. During the last two years, Yushchenko has not attended EPP meetings such as in Bonn.

President Yushchenko’s repeated calls for the annulment of the January gas agreement with Russia, coupled with disquiet at his repeated attempts at undermining the Tymoshenko government, the latest being over the IMF’s refusal to provide the next financial tranche because of populist social spending that would exceed the agreed budgetary limits, has contributed to Yushchenko-fatigue. The European Union has repeatedly called upon Ukraine not to permit a repeat of last year’s long crisis that was very damaging to Ukraine’s international image.

Europe sees Tymoshenko as an agent of stability in the Russia-Ukraine-EU gas relationship and Yushchenko as an agent of instability. Europe sees only Tymoshenko among Ukrainian presidential candidates who could have a realistic chance of integrating Ukraine into Europe. In reference to Tymoshenko, European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek said, “Difficult times require strong leaders. You have all of the possibilities to take Ukraine into the EU”. EPP General Secretary Antonio Lopez Isturiz said, “Yulia Tymoshenko not only could stand up for Ukraine’s position in Europe but also to bring Ukraine closer to the European dream”. Ukraine needs more work in modernizing its political and socio-economic system but nevertheless, “because of her personal traits Yulia Tymoshenko can overcome these challenges”.

The EU, European Parliament and EPP see Ukraine’s presidential elections as a means to reinvigorate Ukraine’s relationship with Europe by replacing Yushchenko with Tymoshenko. Her foreign policy of ideological orientation towards Europe coupled with pragmatism in energy and economic relations with Russia is preferable to Yushchenko’s russophobia. During the last five years, criticism towards Ukraine’s under-performance is itself an indictment of the Yushchenko era. EP President Buzek said, “We hoped for greater progress in bringing Ukraine closer to the basis upon which the European Union is built. Without this closeness of values it is difficult at all to talk about any kind of close cooperation”. Buzek also said that it was important to have elite unity on strategic questions such as European integration, a clear reference to elite in-fighting that has dominated the Yushchenko era and repeated presidential attempts at undermining two Tymoshenko governments.

The EU blames President Yushchenko for five years of instability in Ukraine’s domestic affairs, crises in Ukraine and Europe’s gas relationship with Russia and weak progress in Ukraine’s integration into Europe. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barrosso called upon Ukraine’s leaders to preserve “political and economic stability” by putting aside the “destructive politics” of the last five years. Addressing President Yushchenko at the recent EU-Ukraine summit, Barrosso said, “It often seems to us that commitments on reform are only partly implemented and words are not always accompanied by action. Reforms are the only way to establish stability; closer ties with the EU” (Financial Times, December 4, 2009).

The EU and European Parliament call for deep seated reforms in Ukraine, implementation of the rule of law, political will to battle corruption, free elections and continued commitment to democratization while offering only minor inducements such as a Free Trade Zone and visa-free travel which could be signed next year. Real progress in the reforms that the EU seeks in Ukraine will only come about after two criteria are met: offer of EU membership and appearance of domestic political will. Firstly, the EU offers Ukraine future membership and thereby gives it the same kind of stimulus that it gave to Eastern Europe’s slow reformers, a step that would discipline Ukraine’s elites. Secondly, the election of Tymoshenko as President that could provide domestic political will to push through the promises made on the Maidan five years ago. Tymoshenko will face Yanukovych in round 2 on February 7.

 Dr. Taras Kuzio is Senior Fellow, Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Toronto, and editor of Ukraine Analyst.