Annus Horribilis for Ukraine

Volodymyr Kish

Much as Queen Elizabeth had cause back in 1992 to claim that the preceding year had been an annus horribilis (horrible year), for Ukraine, 2010 was especially so.  It was the year when the Orange Revolution officially died.  To make it even more tragic, one of the primary villains in making this happen, was none other than the original leader of the revolution, namely former President Viktor Yushchenko.  Spurred by some irrational and likely vengeful motives, he did everything in his power to prevent his once chief ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, from winning the election, and in so doing handed the Presidency to Viktor Yanukovich on a platter.

Despite a polished campaign that touted a new, improved, honest and professional image, Yanukovich wasted no time after being elected in reverting to the tried and true model of oligarchic power politics.  The essential ideology of the Party of Regions and the Yanukovich administration is simple – seize power in whatever way possible and then keep it. 

This of course, means that a top priority is the elimination or neutralization of your opponents.  That initiative is in full swing with the full weight of the Ukrainian justice system (now there’s an oxymoron if I’ve ever seen one!) being mobilized to prosecute Yanukovich’s chief political opponents.  Yuriy Lutsenko a former Minister of Internal Affairs and one of the leaders of the Orange Revolution has already been arrested and it appears that Yulia Tymoshenko will shortly be next. 

Ostensibly their crimes are said to be corruption and abuse of power while in office.  How Yanukovich and his minions can keep a straight face in making these claims is beyond me, since they are the true professionals in that respect. While it may be true that few of Ukraine’s post-Soviet politicians on either side can claim to be squeaky clean, true justice demands that it be applied equally to everyone and not just one’s political rivals.  What is happening in Ukraine currently is not justice, or law and order, but hypocrisy.

What is perhaps more ominous, is that there is a concerted effort underway to rewrite Ukrainian history one more time, this time under the heavy handed direction of the Minister of Education, Dmytro Tabachnyk who makes no effort to hide his deep anti-Ukrainian bias. He has antagonized Ukrainians by claiming the Holodomor was a fabrication, by denying Soviet atrocities under Stalin and trying to rehabilitate him, and even claiming that Western Ukrainians or Halychany are not really Ukrainians at all. More recently, he has initiated new legislation that would limit the independence of universities and bring them more under centralized control. 

Aggravating all of the above is the fact that the Ukrainian economy continued to be a mess throughout 2010. It is being kept afloat by bailout loans from the IMF and even these may not last as the IMF is becoming increasingly exasperated by the lack of administrative, tax, judicial and economic reform, not to mention the reality that corruption is increasing rather than being brought under control.  The Yanukovich government launched a poorly planned effort at tax reform in the latter part of the year, but this backfired badly, causing huge protests and demonstrations in virtually every city and region in Ukraine.  The reason was simple – rather than proposing a more fair and equitable tax system, the government sought to squeeze more tax revenue out of the vulnerable, small middle class entrepreneurs and businessmen, rather than going after the unconscionably wealthy oligarchs who siphon off most of the country’s wealth into their own pockets.

In the meantime, the majority of working class Ukrainians continue to suffer from high unemployment, high inflation, continuing corruption and a rapidly declining standard of living.  The elderly on pensions are even worse off. With a devalued Hryvnia, most are forced to get by on less than the equivalent of $125 per month.

It is not clear what 2011 will bring for Ukraine, though one thing is certain and that is that there will continue to be a high degree of instability and uncertainty.  Opposition organizers are promising more protests and demonstrations come spring.  Sooner or later, the actions of political thugs like Tabachnyk will lead to more serious unrest and political turmoil that Yanukovich will find difficult if not impossible to control.  Ukrainians, unlike the subservient citizens of Putin’s Russia, will not allow the imposition of a Putin-esque regime in Ukraine.