The End of the Beginning

By Walter Kish

President Yushchenko and his persistent arch-rival Premier Yanukovich finally agreed to a date for the next parliamentary election – Sept. 30, 2007. Political pundits in Ukraine and elsewhere were quick (though regrettably naпve) to proclaim the political crisis, to be over. 

The situation had escalated to dangerous levels when Yushchenko issued a directive to bring in additional Interior Ministry troops into Kyiv from other regions to counter local Interior troops who were loyal to Yanukovich’s Interior Minister Vasyl Tsushko. Tsushko personally led riot police in a seizure of the Prosecutor General’s office after the President fired Sviatoslav Piskun, a Yanukovich loyalist, from the chief Prosecutor’s post. President Yushchenko declared the action illegal and vowed that criminal charges would be brought against Tsushko. Anarchy appeared to be just around the corner.

Fortunately, with EU leaders applying increasing pressure on all Ukrainian politicians and parties to resolve the crisis peacefully, a deal was finally reached on Sunday, May 27. Anyone who believes the crisis to be really over though, is in for a big disappointment. Wasn’t it just two weeks ago that all these same politicos reached what was thought to be an agreement on new elections? As Winston Churchill once stated, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Between now and Sept. 30, I have no doubt that we will see more controversies, disagreements, crises and tense moments. The past several months have indicated that there will be “no holds barred” on either side in this polarized political battle, as both sides realize that coexistence appears to be impossible and a decisive victory is necessary. 

Although Yushchenko won a victory of sorts in finally getting a definitive date set for the election, the fact that it is Sept. 30 – over four months away – shows that the Yanukovich forces, who had pushed for as long of a delay as possible, got a good deal in the bargaining as well. The well funded oligarchic machine behind Yanukovich’s coalition knows full well that the longer the election campaign, the more expensive it will be for all the political forces. With control over both vast private resources as well as state funds, they will hold a distinct advantage in spending power over their rivals in the Yushchenko and Tymoshenko camps.

With their supporters holding most of the key positions in the government administration, the extra time will also give them ample opportunity to use the levers of state power to manipulate and coerce voters into providing the desired electoral results. 

In addition, events of the past year have shown clearly that Yanukovich’s organization has become much more adept and experienced in all aspects of PR, political image building and using the media to discredit and malign their competitors. You can be sure that there will be a strong campaign aimed at laying all the blame for the political turmoil of the past year on Yushchenko’s shoulders. By corollary, Yanukovich will be presented as the only rational, competent and strong leader able to bring order and prosperity back to Ukraine.

One can only hope that Yushchenko has finally learned that he cannot be the aloof, neutral, compromising and correspondingly ineffective leader he has been over the past few years. This is his last kick at the can, and he has to show decisiveness, strength, pragmatism and to some degree, ruthlessness, or Ukraine will sink into a morass of anarchy and continued corruption. He has to demonstrate convincingly that he is the real champion of honesty, integrity, democracy and economic prosperity for all; that these values are not mere campaign slogans, but reflect both his political program and the people that are part of his team.

How much Ukraine’s tired and disillusioned voters will buy either leader’s version of things remains to be seen. What is sure is that most Ukrainians view almost all current political leaders in Ukraine, with a few exceptions, in deep contempt. Those who are not considered corrupt or venal are mostly seen as incompetent. The next few months will show whether this time, Yushchenko has it right.