Real Russian Foreign Policy Leaked

By Wolodymyr Derzko

Russian foreign policy rhetoric has changed lately. Russian pundits, politicians and government officials are all in reset mode. The key strategic question that everyone’s asking is: Are Russians in a true reset shift to more openness and cooperation or in an about face - back to their traditional tactics of aggression and colonialism but in the guise of warming international relations, and clouded by backroom deception? Recent Op-Ed pieces suggest the possibility of improved relations between Russia and the UK, Ukraine and even with the USA.

Many Russians themselves are not convinced that the Cold War is over. A recently leaked foreign affairs document that was posted on an anti-Kremlin current affairs Web site Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal and translated by BBC Monitoring, has seriously embarrassed the Russian foreign affairs ministry and exposed Minister Sergey Lavrov’s real agenda.

The leaked document, “Programme of Effective Application of Foreign
Political Factors on a Systematic Basis for Purposes of Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation,” testifies to a radical shift in foreign policy. The key issue is the modernization of Russia. Russia admits that it “cannot do without the West and therefore, we are in for a decisive international warming.”

Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal claims that the entire document is a clever setup and merely a ploy.”

The document goes on to claim “Just as the United States was our geopolitical rival, so it remains: The priority direction of US policy is still to neutralize actions undertaken by energy exporter countries that are not controlled by the West, strengthening their positions and coordinating work on the energy markets.” See price manipulation below.

As evidence it cites: “Our foreign policy strategists are demonstrating no less positiveness and desire for compromises in their approach to specific international problems: To oppose the broad internationalization of the Arctic problems, ... to achieve rejection of unilateral actions in deployment of global missile defences in Europe,” etc.

The following quote clearly outlines Russian Western-focused opportunism. The document concludes that the world economic crisis is advantageous for Russia: the West “will be hit by a ‘second wave’” or a double-dip recession.  “They are in trouble, so let us make use of this.” This hints that Russia could be orchestrating a second global economic crisis targeting the West, mimicking what the West admitted to doing by manipulating energy prices in the 1970s and 1980s to bankrupt the Soviet Union. This could be easily done by dumping US Treasury Bills (like we saw in Fall 2008), shorting US equities or divesting gold accumulated by Russian or other sympathetic sovereign wealth funds.

Ukraine and Canada could easily become collateral damage of superpower
geopolitical gamesmanship.

As for Ukraine? “Here is a project they intend to promote in fraternal Ukraine: “To support efforts of Russian oil companies, who are striving to use the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline in the reverse direction, which would limit Ukraine’s access to Caspian oil.” … “The main task is to bind our partner’s hands and feet. This looks particularly amusing in light of the current endless talk about mutually advantageous cooperation with Kiev.”

Walter (Wolodymyr) Derzko is a Senior Fellow at the Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab), Ontario College of Art & Design, and a lecturer in the MA program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, OCAD, Toronto.