An Election Once More

By Walter Kish

As Ukraine continues to be embroiled in political turmoil and uncertainty, the average Ukrainian citizen has become increasingly disenchanted with the current cast of characters that pass for political leaders in this troubled country.  Most of those surrounding the ruling Yanukovich coalition are viewed as rapacious robber barons concerned mostly with lining their pockets, while the once heroic leaders of the Orange Revolution are seen as bumbling and incompetent at best or traitors at worst.

It seems that the only politician to have come through the political anarchy of the past few years with stature and credibility relatively intact is Yulia Tymoshenko.  With another showdown election now scheduled for September 30, she is now poised to realistically become the force that may finally bring the historical process that started back in 2004 with the Orange Revolution to a successful conclusion.  She is one of the few leaders that energized and inspired the Maidan that stayed true to the original principles, and now has emerged as the undisputed leader of the reform movement in Ukraine. 

Although Yushchenko should be commended for finally dissolving a dysfunctional, reactionary and unconstitutional Parliament and Cabinet, his political credibility and influence has been irreparably damaged, and the majority of those politicians truly committed to a democratic and European Ukraine have already or will shortly consolidate behind Tymoshenko as the best hope for Ukraine’s political future.

Although the upcoming elections will see a number of parties still running, realistically only three should garner enough votes to pass the 3% popular vote barrier to enter parliament – Yanukovich’s Party of Regions, the Tymoshenko Bloc, and a significantly reduced Our Ukraine bloc.  There has been some talk of Our Ukraine running jointly with the Tymoshenko Bloc, however, as desirable as this option would be for the future of Ukraine, I doubt whether Yushchenko’s ego and dubious political judgment will allow him to take this obviously pragmatic and principled option.

The other two parties that made it to Parliament in the last election, namely the Socialists under Moroz and the Communists under Symonenko, appear headed for political oblivion.  No true Socialist will forgive Moroz’s betrayal of the revolution when he joined Yanukovich’s coalition, while Symonenko will have a tough time justifying to the genuinely ideological Communists, how he could support the forces of big capital and the obscenely rich oligarchs that control the Regions Party.

Although the Party of Regions has the advantage in terms of financing and control of most of the government’s administrative structures, their vote is unlikely to exceed the 35% - 40% natural support base that they hold in the Russified eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.  Short of resorting to significant electoral manipulation and fraud, they have little potential for growth. Despite a significant effort to refurbish the image of both Yanukovich and the Party of Regions, few Ukrainians have been persuaded that they stand for anything other than oligarchic self-interest.  There is little ideological substance behind the party, and most Ukrainians realize that it is strictly a convenient structure serving the interests of a small Donbas-centered business elite.  I would even hazard to say that in the past, many have voted for the Party of Regions, not so much because they agree with their political program or support its leadership, but because they have not seen anything resembling a credible or competent alternative, and for many, a known status quo is preferable to the unknown.

Interestingly, the Yushchenko and Tymoshenko forces also have a similar given natural support base of around 35% - 40% located essentially in Western and Central Ukraine.  However, unlike the Regions consortium, they do have opportunity for growth in electoral support.  The limiting factor to date has been their inability to unite, put forth a credible program and persuade the populace that they are capable of competently running the country.  They have been their own worst enemies, their actions marred by internal squabbles, conspiracies, greed, ego clashes, lack of pragmatic compromise, and the inability to cooperate.  Should they form a united front and show the Ukrainian electorate that they have learned from their mistakes of the past few years, they would stand a good chance of getting a solid majority vote in the upcoming election.

The next few months should show whether reason will prevail, or whether Ukraine is doomed to suffer many more years of political strife and uncertainty.

As much as I may wish for the former, I have learned that Ukrainian politics is highly unpredictable and we are in for an interesting election.