Political Standoff Ends

After some three months of haggling, ultimatums and accusations, the oligarchs, power mongers, political hacks and self-serving egos that call themselves politicians of the so-called Orange Revolution finally came to an agreement on forming a working coalition in Ukraine’s parliament. One might think that they sensed the extreme frustration and disenchantment of the Ukrainian population over the behind-the-scenes wrangling over political power. But that would be giving them a little too much credit.

This was all a game of dividing up the spoils of the election, namely, the key seats in the Cabinet and the various government structures. After all, there were few real ideological differences between the original partners in the Orange Revolution. 

This was essentially a clash of egos and a jockeying for political position. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine Party, decimated in the March parliamentary elections, was doing all it could to stall and frustrate its former partners in an attempt to get them to cede as many concessions as possible.

Yulia Tymoshenko, bolstered by her strong showing in those same elections, was hardly inclined to concede anything and, in the end, got pretty well what she wanted: the premiership plus most of the key government ministries.

The Socialists, under Moroz, were the only real losers in this sorry political game of chicken. Their position from the start had been that Moroz should become the next Speaker in Parliament. In the end, the Our Ukraine forces were able to garner that high-profile position for their primary financial backer, Petro Poroshenko. Ironically, this is somewhat of a pyrrhic victory as this move will likely lose the Our Ukraine Party even more credibility and support, as Poroshenko’s popularity after the breakup of the first coalition sunk so badly that he stood even further down in the polls than Yanukovych.

So, what’s the net result? Yulia gets to be Prime Minister again and her party gets to name the parliamentary Vice Speaker, as well as appoint its choices for the key ministries of Finance, Economics, Agriculture, Energy, Culture, plus five other ministries as well as the head of the State Property Fund. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party gets to name the Speaker of Parliament as well as ministers for Labour, Industry, Internal Affairs, Justice and Family, Youth and Sports. The Socialists, as junior partners in the coalition, get to nominate the first Vice Premier and get the ministries of Education, Transport, Ecology and Human Rights. Nominations to the Defence and Foreign Affairs portfolios are the preserve of the President.

The big questions on everybody’s mind are: how long will the coalition last and how effective will it be?  I would hope that Yulia has learned some lessons from her previous stint as PM and will be a little less impulsive and a little more measured in her actions and pronouncements. Nonetheless, Yulia being Yulia, we will continue seeing her making news on an ongoing basis, and not always of the positive kind.

Petro Poroshenko as Speaker of Parliament will be a treat to watch. This is obviously his opportunity to reform his image and to prove that he has tact, diplomacy and facilitation skills, and not only a lot of money and roaring ambition. One can be sure, though, that aside from his peers in Our Ukraine, the remainder of the parliamentary deputies will take great delight in giving him a hard time. His patience and his political abilities will undoubtedly be tested.

About the rest of the new Cabinet team, there is not much I can say except that there is no shortage of young talent around and one hopes that the majority of these posts gets filled by people of ability as opposed to considerations of political payoff. One would hope that such knowledgeable current ministers as Victor Penzenyk, Boris Tarasiuk and Serhiy Holowaty find a place in the new Cabinet.

The biggest concern that I have is with the Interior Ministry. Since the revolution, it has been in the capable hands of Yuri Lutsenko. Of all the cabinet ministers over the past two years, he is the one that almost everyone acknowledges has been the most capable reformer and who is significantly rooting out corruption. He happens to belong to the Socialist Party and, unfortunately, his ministry is not part of their coalition mandate.  I would hope that common sense and integrity prevail and some way is found for him to keep his current post and continue the good work he is doing.

Whatever the case, we are in for an interesting ride over the next year or two. I only hope that this time Tymoshenko’s government lasts longer and ends in a more normal fashion than did her first one.