Language Wars

By Volodymyr Kish

This past week’s worth of news from Ukraine was dominated by the passage of a new law by the country’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, that gives the Russian language official status in regions where there are a significant number of native Russian speakers.  Needless to say, this provoked a strong and at times violent reaction from many Ukrainians concerned that this is the Trojan Horse for another attempt at re-Russifying the country.  Demonstrations in Kyiv in front of the Ukrayinskiy Dim (Ukrainian House) were quelled by riot police using pepper spray and batons.  Ukrainian communities throughout the world are being urged to mount demonstrations and protests at Ukrainian embassies and consulates.

Political commentators and Ukrainian activists everywhere are asking how President Yanukovych and the Party of Regions could have been so stupid as to raise this contentious, explosive and polarizing issue so near to crucial Parliamentary Elections this October.  I would hazard to say that rather than being stupid, this was a deliberate, premeditated and clever ploy by this embattled regime.

Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, through the incompetence and corruption of their administration, have been steadily losing popularity with the Ukrainian electorate, even in their home base regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and the Crimea.  They know that based on their record, they stand little chance of winning the elections.  So, as I am sure some their brain trust figured out, let’s create a crisis that will bring those wavering, primarily Russian speaking supporters firmly back into the fold.  Let us wave the red cape in front of the Ukrainian nationalist bull by passing this Russian language law.  This will provoke a strong and hoped for violent reaction that will scare the Russian speakers back into line.  After all, nothing is more fear inducing to those unilingual Russians than those rabid Ukrainian nationalists who undoubtedly must be itching to wreak havoc and revenge on their former and current Russian masters.

It may sound ludicrous to us here, but do not underestimate the paranoia that the Party of Regions has managed to create in Eastern Ukraine as a tactic for maintaining political control.  They are hoping to solidify this 30% Russian speaking electoral base through this tactic and secure the remaining percentage needed to stay in power by dividing the Opposition, manipulating the electoral process, imprisoning or neutralizing any real opposition, and using their vast ill-gotten wealth to control the elections.  I have no doubt that this is all part of a carefully laid out plan, and unfortunately, the Ukrainian nationalist opposition is just playing into their hands.  The stronger the Ukrainian reaction, the more inclined the Russians will be to forget all the ills of the Yanukovych regime and rally solidly behind the Party of Regions and Yanukovych as their protector against the “Banderite nationalist hordes”.

The really ironic thing about this issue is that the Russian language in Ukraine is under no threat and is in fact doing very well, thank you very much.  A recent study by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine showed that over the past twenty years of Ukrainian independence, the number of people claiming Russian as their first language has grown from 29% to almost 39%.

Lost in all the commotion, is the fact that this “law” has little chance of ever being enacted.  First of all, it is clearly illegal and unconstitutional as the status of the Ukrainian language as the only Official Language of Ukraine is clearly entrenched in the Constitution.  Mind you, Yanukovych’s control of the courts is so absolute that such legal niceties may not matter. Nonetheless, should the issue ever get to that stage, the last fig leaf of legal respectability would have to be sacrificed to push this measure through.

Secondly, even though the law was passed in Parliament by a claimed majority of some 248 votes, video of the session of the Verkhovna Rada that passed the bill clearly shows that there were no more than 50 to 100 Regions deputies present for the vote, and that those present illegally voted for members who were not there.

Lastly, before being enacted, the bill has to be signed by the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Lytwyn, before going to the President for final signature.  Lytwyn has clearly stated he is opposed to the measure and will not sign, choosing to resign as Speaker instead.  Deputy Speaker Mykola Tomenko has resigned as well.  Parliament has now adjourned and the fate of the “passed” legislation is now in limbo.  My guess is that Yanukovych will let the issue boil some more and eke out of it every last ounce of fear-mongering before he takes the next step.

The elections approach and the game is getting serious.  The opening shot has been fired and regrettably it is the regime that has drawn the first blood and set the agenda.  The nationalist opposition must take stock and find a way of regaining control of the agenda on which the election will and should be fought.