How to lose the next elections in Ukraine?

Focus just on language.

By Walter Derzko and Andrew Zhalko Tytarenko

 

Many people are starting to recognize that the real reason for the timing of the language bill (The Ukrainian Law “On the Principles of Language Policy”) [giving Russian official status in some regions under certain circumstances] was to create a deception, a diversion, a red herring, a cover-up, and a smokescreen to pass over 20 bills passed on July 3, 2012, and steal billions from Ukraine’s coffers by the Party of Regions.

How much was stolen?

Kyiv Post estimates that it’s over 300 billion Hryvnia or $37.5 billion USD: 

• Secret state procurements - Hr 250-270 billion (… likely to be laundered into private accounts in Cyprus);

• Chinese commodity loan - Hr 24.3 billion (… how much chornozem farm land will the Chinese buy for this? This is already a grain-for-loans swap deal. And why does Ukraine need any external loans when oligarchs last year laundered over $50 billion into EU banks);

• Video cameras for polling stations - Hr 1 billion (… gold plated web cams? to film voter booths but not vote counting);

• Tax-free construction of railway to Kyiv Boryspil Airport - Hr 320 million (why? … untendered?);

• Subsidies for coal and peat mining - Hr 2.2 billion (… subsidy money into the pockets of Renat Akhmetov and Yurij Ivanyushchenko and puts an end to the myth that Donbas financially feeds the rest of Ukraine);

• Additional money for the General Prosecutor - Hr 174 million (… to pay for more Yulia Tymoshenko and other opposition member trials?);

• Additional money for the Justice Ministry - Hr 1 million;

• New rules for sale/privatization of military property introduced (… to China? Russia? Oligarchs?); and

• The State Agrarian Fund is allowed to dole out state property that belongs to the fund. (… to China?).

The key mistake of the Opposition is to concentrate exclusively on language. One only has to look at the Party of Regions “talking heads” on the various shows, to see that they urgently want to divert public attention away from the gross violations of over 20 parliamentary procedures, and from the fact that there were only about 50 MPs who were actually present in Parliament voting for the language law and not the official 248, and to talk only about “language”. Fundamentally, the Opposition needs to grab these cases of massive violations and fraud, which have impact on language as well, and carry this “unabashed corruption” message all the way to elections.

Professor Roman Serbyn summarises this logic: “The mistake of the “opposition” was to make the language (issue), rather than good government, the centre of their campaign. It is good government, the rule of law, a civil society, and all these other principles of democracy that can and should be the uniting glue for the Ukrainian State. Ukrainians in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv and everywhere else want to have a country in which they and their children can have a decent life with a reasonable future. It is only on this basis (and not the language issue) that the Opposition could get itself elected into the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), and eventually get rid of President Viktor Yanukovych and his kleptokracy. After getting rid of this criminal regime, Ukraine could then solve its linguistic problems in a satisfactory manner for most if not all its citizens.”

Here are some added facts:

1. According to an earlier Gallup poll, only 3% of Ukrainians named the issue of language among the top-3 priorities. Because of this, language is seen as a distraction, and election ploy, rather than a real daily concern. If the Opposition focuses on language solely, its candidates will look like and will be painted as fringe right-wing lunatics. That’s exactly what the Party of Regions wants.

2. To achieve this goal, the Party of Regions needs to keep the topic “hot” at least until the end of September. Meanwhile, approving the language law now effectively “neutralizes” their game. It is early July, pre-vacation, and by the end of October it will be all forgotten.

3. While the topic mobilizes the opposition-minded electorate, the entire “game” is to keep the “silent Ukrainian majority” passive, and to seed and grow the opinion that “they are all the same”, which is, in fact, recycling the “Vote Against All” or “ ” agenda of the 2010 Presidential Elections.

4. Another odd factor is that they could have passed “this law” following regular procedures. Nevertheless, they chose the scandalous approach.

We believe that the scandal and timing was the actual goal, to conceal the massive 300 B Hr financial grab, and possibly drown out the ruling of the European Court on the Yuri Lutsenko case and the Freedom House report in the 24 hour news cycle. If this assertion is correct, the matter will be left “hanging” until September, with no signature by Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and/or President Yanukovych, and it will be re-activated closer to the elections.

We encourage as many Ukrainians in the Diaspora, who care about the situation in Ukraine, to support any of the planned demonstrations in front of Ukrainian consulates or embassies worldwide, such as the one planned on July 18, 2012 at 6pm. at 2275 Lakeshore Blvd. West in Toronto. For details, visit http://www.lucorg.com/news.php/lang/en  But to focus just on the language issue would be a tactical and strategic mistake for both the Diaspora and for the Opposition in Ukraine.