The Colour of the Next Revolution

By Volodymyr Kish

 A year and a half into his term as President, Viktor Yanukovych is in big trouble.  The economy is a basket case and corruption is flourishing more than ever.  To a disgruntled populace, it has become obvious that he is either incapable or unwilling to fulfil any of the grand sounding promises he made during the election to stabilize the economy, root out corruption and improve the quality of life for all Ukrainians.  His popularity has plunged to a new low, even in his former stronghold in the Donbas. 

This is particularly painful to his supporters, since he has basically consolidated all power in his hands and can no longer claim that his opponents are preventing him from effecting needed change and reform.  His Party of Regions controls the Ukrainian Parliament, his minions rule the administration with an iron fist, and the President has more direct power than at any time since Ukraine became independent.  Yet life in Ukraine has deteriorated in almost every aspect since he came into power, and no amount of propaganda can hide the fact that his rule has so far been a colossal failure.  Even his gullible supporters in Eastern Ukraine are beginning to realize that, and are growing increasingly restive.

Legally, President Yanukovych still has quite a few years left in his term as President.  However, parliamentary elections to the Verkhovna Rada are next year.  I am sure he realizes that unless he can pull another rabbit out of his hat, his Party of Regions are likely to be severely punished by the voters and he could lose control of Ukraine’s parliament. 

His response, predictably, is both simplistic and frankly stupid.  He has embarked on an ill-advised and politically juvenile campaign of persecuting and imprisoning his chief rivals.  Yuri Lutsenko, one of the prominent leaders of the Orange Revolution and a Minister of the Interior in Premier Yulia Tymoshenko’s Cabinet, has been jailed. Yulia herself is being prosecuted for - get this - corruption and abuse of power.  The irony is delicious!

There is no doubt that corruption has become a festering boil in Ukraine, to the point where last week, Yanukovych publicly promised to “bury” corrupt officials and to “rip off their heads”.  This ludicrous and desperate rhetoric does little to mask the fact that corruption is flourishing under his administration, which has been singularly ineffective in doing anything about it.  Instead of focusing on the real issue of corruption, he is using the judicial system to attack and eliminate his political rivals under the pretext of addressing this debilitating scourge that infects all levels of government.

This cynical and transparent abuse of justice has been widely condemned, both inside and outside the country, and by the EU in particular.  No doubt, in trying to eliminate all serious opposition, he is following the example of his petty dictator neighbour in Belarus, dangerously overlooking the fact that Ukrainians are not Belarusians and will not allow Yanukovych to become another Lukashenka.

Presumably, desperation will likely lead President Yanukovych and his Party of Regions to attempt wide- scale election fraud and manipulation, a tactic that, as we all know, backfired once before and will likely do the same again.  Except this time, I doubt whether the next “revolution” will be quite as peaceful as the Orange Revolution was in 2004.  People in Ukraine have been hardened by almost two decades of political manipulation and deceit. They will likely be in no mood to accept empty promises, self-serving compromises or half measures any more.  The colour of the next revolution is liable to be somewhat darker than the one in 2004.

The lead-up towards the next parliamentary elections in 2012 will undoubtedly be a time of significant political manoeuvring and turbulence.  Yanukovych is rapidly losing both his lustre and credibility.  It will be interesting to see whether the Party of Regions sees the writing on the wall and dumps him as leader before he drags them down into his personal political abyss.

As for the opposition, I continue to hope that they can rise above their factionalism and coalesce around one leader and not continue to fritter away electoral opportunities by dividing their forces.  It can be done and was done effectively at the time of the Orange Revolution.  The problem then was that in Yushchenko, they picked the wrong leader, one that proved woefully inadequate to the task.  It is time to try again and do it right this time.