The Apple Has Fallen

By Walter Kish

As my cousin Hryts from Pidkamin pointed out to me the other day, there is a delicious bit of irony about the current political situation in Ukraine.  The “Anti-Crisis” coalition led by the Party of Regions has been trumpeting the claim for the past week that only they can bring the country back together again – only they can unify the east and the west and get the country and its economy working productively again. 

Over the past weekend, Kyiv streets were witness to large convoys of cars noisily parading with the “Regions” flag on one side and the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian standard on the other.  Even more incredible, Yanukovych, who for most of the previous year had reverted to mostly speaking his natural surzhyk Russian, is once again to be seen on television screens everywhere speaking Ukrainian like a true patriot. This is the same party and leader that not that long ago was making strong separatist noises about taking the Russified Donbas out of Ukraine.

Was it really that long ago that the Orange coalition laid claim to being the only political force that could keep Ukraine and its disparate regions together?  While a resurgent Yanukovych is increasingly hogging the limelight as the potential “saviour” of a Ukraine in turmoil, the leaders of the once hopeful  and dynamic Orange coalition have slunk away to lick their wounds. 

Yushchenko, completely outclassed, outmatched and outmaneuvered in the political arena, is desperately trying to salvage whatever is left of both his authority and his reputation.  Unfortunately, the same circle of “wise men,” that advised him into the current disaster, are still there in his impenetrable inner circle and will undoubtedly advise him into complete oblivion.  It is a shame.  Yushchenko is a good man, an honest man who cares for his country. Regrettably, he has been badly served and badly counselled by those he trusts.

Sad to say, from the very start of the first Orange coalition, Yushchenko’s brain trust viewed the chief enemy as being not the oligarchs, not the cultural and psychological legacy of the Communist era, not the rampant corruption and inertia of the government, but rather the popularity of one Yulia Tymoshenko. While they schemed and conspired to constrain, restrain and detrain her political ambitions, all of Kuchma’s political descendants had to do was wait for the eventual fallout.  As one political observer here in Ukraine put it, the apple has now fallen into Yanukovych’s lap with little effort required on his part.

Yushchenko’s minions have now handed Ukraine back to Yanukovych on a platter.

As for most Ukrainians, a heavy sense of political weariness and disillusionment has set in.  Less than two years ago they invested a large amount of spiritual and psychological capital into what they believed was the overthrow of a corrupt system of government.  Most now feel that their hopes and dreams have been betrayed.  The orange of a revolution has turned out to be more the orange of a pumpkin.  The only Orange leader that still commands any respect and loyalty is Tymoshenko, and it is likely around her that most of the remaining Orange support will coalesce.

It will take some effort, however, to motivate the Ukrainian masses towards the kind of activism we saw in the fall of 2004, even for Tymoshenko.  Over this past weekend, the Tymoshenko forces organized another tent city protest on the Maidan.  In contrast to the hundreds of thousands that turned out during the original Orange revolution, the numbers this time around were more in the hundreds, perhaps a few thousand at the peak. 

In the meantime, rumours and speculation abound as to what happens next.  Will Yuschchenko dissolve parliament and call new elections?  Will his discredited Our Ukraine party join up with the Regions in the grand “Anti-Crisis” coalition?  Will the newly cocky Regions party, together with their Communist and Socialist allies, press for the impeachment of President Yushchenko?  If the Regions party comes back into power, will it turn Ukraine back towards Russia, or continue the move towards integration with Europe? Will the Ukrainian populace stand idly by again, while their government and their future are once again determined by backroom political power brokers?

Stay tuned –Ukrainian politics may be unpredictable and incomprehensible, but it is never dull.