Political Farce

By Walter Kish

Just when I thought I understood the dynamics of Ukrainian politics, the inmates of this dubious asylum surprise me with yet another creative example of political farce. Last week, in the aftermath of what appeared to be both a political and moral victory over the Russians in a tense natural gas dispute, Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted the four-month-old government of Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov out of office in an unanticipated motion of non-confidence.

Although the natural gas agreement was far from ideal, most experts had concluded that Ukraine got as good a deal as it could have wished for under the circumstances. For Putin and the Russians, it was a significant miscalculation and embarrassment in the grand game of global politics. Once again they showed themselves to be the bullies and unreformed imperialists that have characterized Russian history from time immemorial. Their primary petro-customers in Europe were definitely not impressed!

Yushchenko and Yekhanurov were quick to denounce the ouster of the government as not only destabilizing and illogical but unconstitutional as well, and in reading the fine print of the constitutional changes that took effect on January 1, they probably have a good case. Unfortunately, the only body that can legally decide on the matter – the country’s Constitutional Court – is prevented from acting because it lacks a quorum. The Verkhovna Rada, justifiably fearing a challenge from the Yushchenko forces on the legality of the constitutional changes, has been delaying the appointment of the required new Constitutional Court judges for months.

To make things worse, or more comical, depending on your perspective, the same constitutional changes give the Verkhovna Rada the power to appoint a new government, but only after the upcoming parliamentary elections in March. Hence, they could dismiss the existing government but do not yet have the authority to appoint a new one. Recognizing this, the Rada in conjunction with its non-confidence vote, also voted to have the defeated cabinet continue in power in an “acting” capacity until the elections. What it all boils down to is that there will be no real changes and the sole purpose of this political action was to try to embarrass and discredit the Yushchenko forces in advance of the parliamentary elections.

This becomes clear when one looks at who voted for the non-confidence motion. It is as unlikely an alliance as one could imagine – Tymosheno aligned with Yanukovych, the Communists and various other reactionary forces. Tymoshenko in bed with the Communists? Who would have thought! Obviously her desire for revenge over her ouster as prime minister overcame her better political judgment. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned! Unfortunately for her, this dalliance with the Communists will not play well in Western Ukraine, and Yulia is likely to pay a dear political price there come poll time.

Which of course is the issue overriding all others in Ukrainian politics these days – the March parliamentary elections. Campaign posters and TV ads are beginning to spring up everywhere. Each of the major parties and blocs is spending big bucks in flashy campaigns to promote their message. Some of the colours and logos are familiar carryovers from last year’s Presidential elections– the “Tak” (Yes) and the orange of Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party, Tymoshenko’s red heart on a virginal white background or Oleksandr Moroz’s flashy pink colour scheme.

Other contenders are showing some imagination and humour, as witness the “Ne Tak” (Not Yes, Not So) campaign of the SDPU. Victor Lytwyn’s bloc has taken up the trendy model of the one word slogan, plastering the Ukrainian version of “We” on all their posters. He has also appropriated green as the colour of his campaign, no doubt to reflect the safe and neutral image he is trying to build for his party. Yevhen Marchuk, not to be outdone in the slogan game, is pushing the word “You” on his campaign promotional material.

So for the next couple of months, Ukraine can expect little in terms of constructive efforts by the government and a lot of manufactured political theatre, all geared to gaining maximum advantage in the upcoming vote. What I have seen so far has been big on superficial sheen and short on substance…but then, a knowledgeable electorate is exactly the opposite of what most parties here are after.