A Bad Case of Gas
By Walter Kish
The natural gas crisis continued to dominate the headlines these
past few weeks in Europe as Russia and Ukraine prolonged their war of
words in an increasingly bitter dispute that left most of Eastern Europe without the gas they so
desperately need for winter heating.
Needless to say, each side blames the other for the impasse, and
although most Europeans recognize that Russia is using this issue to
exert political blackmail on Ukraine, their patience is
wearing thin with both sides the longer the impasse drags on.
Russia
needs Ukraine’s
pipelines to supply their European customers, while Ukraine is
dependant on Russia for
some 80% of its own natural gas needs.
With some good will and under normal circumstances, a reasonable
commercial deal that benefits both sides should be easy to arrive at. Unfortunately, Russia has
a more important political agenda – one that aims to punish Ukraine for
trying to leave Russia’s
embrace and align itself with Europe and
the West. Over the past few years, it
has become obvious that Vladimir Putin is trying to reconstitute Russia as
a major power in the world, using Russia’s
bountiful petroleum resources as his primary weapon of influence.
Sadly, since independence, Ukraine has
left itself vulnerable to this kind of economic arm twisting as a result of a
glaring lack of any kind of coherent effort to modernize its energy sector and
make it self-sufficient. Ukraine
depends upon natural gas for 49% or about half of its total energy needs. Coal provides for 24%, nuclear power 14%, oil
12%, and hydroelectric 1%. The
over-reliance on natural gas is striking – Ukraine is
the sixth largest consumer of natural gas in the world. Annually, it uses more gas than Poland, Hungary,
the Czech Republic and
Slovakia
combined!
Although Ukraine
does have its own sizeable gas reserves, its production falls far short of
demand. Ukraine
produces about 20 billion cubic metres of gas each year while consuming about
80 billion cubic metres. It imports the
difference from Russia. Although there has been much talk of
increasing internal production, lack of political stability and will, as well
as the large investment capital required, have resulted in very little concrete
action in this regard.
The real issue with natural
gas usage in Ukraine is
that much of this consumption is wasted because of poor and outdated
infrastructure. A 2004 study showed that
Ukraine’s
ratio of energy usage to GDP ranked it as the most energy-inefficient country
in the world.
A particular sore spot is
the amount of gas used in residential heating of the large communal apartment
blocks that provide housing to the vast majority of Ukraine’s
population. The Ukrainian government’s
own research has shown that some 25% - 30% of the gas used in this heating is
wasted.
I know this from the
personal experience of having lived in a typical Ukrainian apartment. Heat was provided from a central boiler
servicing several large buildings.
Regardless of prevailing outside temperatures, the heat generated was
kept at a constant level and was often much more than required. There were no individual thermostats in
apartments, so tenants regulated the temperature by opening windows, allowing
excess heat to escape.
Lack of metering and billing
for actual usage has led to some truly wasteful usage practices. Despite being
aware of this colossal waste, the authorities have done virtually nothing to
address this problem.
In 2006, the Ukrainian
government adopted the “Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until
2030”. It envisions doubling the
production of coal and nuclear energy to reduce the dependency on natural
gas. Although commendable in terms of
its ambition, there is little detail on how to fund the huge investments that
will be required to implement it. As
pointed out in a study done in 2007 by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies,
there is little in energy strategy that addresses the potential of energy
savings through better management of the demand side of the problem. Experts have estimated for instance that the
amount of gas used for residential heating could be cut in half by upgrading
plant and implementing modern energy conservation technologies and methods.
In view of the continuing
energy crisis, the Ukrainian government should make energy sector reforms its top
strategic priority. It is now far more
than just an economic problem – it is a political problem that threatens Ukraine’s
very sovereign existence.