What Next?

By Walter Kish

Ukrainians have been both frustrated and flabbergasted by the political events of the past few weeks.  The once heralded and admired forces of the Orange Revolution have managed to snatch utter defeat from the jaws of victory.

It was only a few weeks ago that Yushchenko’s minions were squabbling with Tymoshenko’s in dividing the cabinet seats, committees and parliamentary perks in a grudging coalition that took more than three months to cobble together.  Amid a stream of ultimatums and accusations, it seemed they had managed to bring their egos and ambitions under control and a shaky, yet workable, compromise was in the offing. 

But they ignored that they had a third minority partner, Oleksander Moroz and his Socialist Party.  Moroz made it clear that he wanted the Speaker’s chair in Parliament, and most everybody on both sides of the political divide in Ukraine would have been happy to see him in that role.  Everybody, except Yushchenko and his immediate brain trust.  With stubborn intransigence, they pushed their own Petro Poroshenko, Our Ukraine’s most prominent oligarch and bankroller, and a figure with virtually zero support or credibility amongst the Ukrainian electorate.

They miscalculated badly.  Moroz, feeling snubbed, insulted and underappreciated, chatted with Yanukovych and the Regions Party and then stunned his Orange partners by joining with the Regions and the Communists in a new majority coalition.  Now Moroz is Speaker in Ukraine’s Parliament, and in another week or so Yanukovych will likely be Prime Minister once more.  What is more, they did it all legally and constitutionally.  It seems that Yanukovych and Moroz know how to play the political game far better than Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

Tymoshenko is making noises about the illegality of it all, but it is mostly bluster.  Her only recourse now is pressuring Yushchenko to dismiss Parliament and call new elections, which he can constitutionally do. Yushchenko, however, is loathe to do so.  He knows that in a new election his Our Ukraine party will likely be trashed as a vengeful electorate punishes him and his entourage for their incompetence and the perceived betrayal of most of the principles he preached during the Orange Revolution.

It is also likely that in any new election, Yanukovych might gain a legitimate majority.  Recent polls show that many Orange supporters are so disillusioned that they would likely not bother voting if an election were held now.

So Ukraine will shortly be faced with another Yanukovych government, and questions abound as to what will happen next.  Despite much dire speculation, I think we should not jump to too many pessimistic conclusions.  As some experts have noted, the new so-called “Anti-Crisis Coalition” has its own inherent weaknesses.  It is an unlikely coalition, with the Regions Party representing big business, big capital and oligarchic interests, the Communists, an outdated and reactionary collectivist ideology, and the Socialists, a middle-of-the-road reformist constituency aspiring to European social- democratic ideals.  Minefields abound around such controversial issues as privatization and land ownership, joining the EU and WTO, agricultural policy, economic and judicial reform and many others.  And, even though the Regions Party has made a big issue of recognizing Russian as a second state language, most of the Donbas oligarchs that control it have no great desire to join Putin’s new Russia where the government is imposing increasing control if not domination of Russia’s private sector.

It would be safe to assume that Akhmetov and his confreres who pull the strings of the Regions Party would rather see themselves as part of the European business community than a pawn of Putin’s new petro-financed dictatorship.  Thus, sooner or later, this coalition is bound to collapse from its own internal contradictions and conflicts.

Though the fight against corruption will suffer a setback with Yanukovych back in power, the empowerment of Ukrainian citizens over the past several years, together with the current strength of the independent media in Ukraine, Parliament’s greater powers, the influence of external observers and the large foreign presence in Ukraine, will serve as restraints against the return of the flagrant abuse we saw under Kuchma.

Undoubtedly, Ukraine will face some short-term pain and uncertainty, but the bright side is that recent events will coalesce the fractious Ukrainian political scene around essentially two political forces: a business-oriented right-wing Regions-based party, and a more progressive, nationalist reformist party that will evolve from the remnants and supporters of the Orange forces.

Our Ukraine and Yushchenko will likely disappear as great disappointments into Ukrainian history.  The Socialists will be split by the odious double-dealing and betrayal by Moroz and will probably also soon become footnotes.  The Communists have been dying for the past decade and will eventually fade into their own well-deserved oblivion. Ukraine should evolve in the near future into a more stable two- or perhaps three-party system.

In the meantime, the rules have changed, the game is underway and Ukrainians as well as the rest of the world now anxiously wait to see where Ukraine goes next.