Ukraine, Russia and Free Trade
By Oksana Bashuk Hepburn
Kyiv Post, August 5, 2013
----------------------
One of the big guessing games in Europe is whether its largest country, Ukraine, will side with it or Russia on a free trade agreement. If recent peccadilloes between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart are anything to go by, there is a definite turn towards the European Union’s Association Agreement. But there’s also a hitch.
The EU needs Ukraine to comply with some key conditions before the agreement is signed. These include a fix of improper electoral rules and other reforms and, most importantly, the release of former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko.
There’s been progress on some reforms but ensuring free elections is not one of them. Last fall’s parliamentary elections saw serious vote tampering in five races. Opposition party winners were replaced by the President’s Party of Regions. Re-elections have yet to take place.
Meanwhile, opposition candidate Arkadiy Kornatskiy has fled the country with his family (Kornatskiy has since returned). Their lives have been threatened, his business raided and staff incarcerated. Kornatskiy’s chief accountant was arrested while on a walk near her home. She’s been held in a detention centre without being accused of wrong-doing or having a trial for nearly six months.
Such blatant political abuses would make it easy to say no, but Europe stands to gain from an alliance with Ukraine not just economically, but also by containing Russia’s expansionism. Ukraine’s patriots and oligarchs are, for once, on the same page and in tandem with Europe. Both want national sovereignty; the former to build a strong national state; the latter to access the EU markets.
Last week in Kyiv, celebrating the 1,025th anniversary of the Baptism of Kyiv, President Yanukovych and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin could not bear each other for more than a fifteen-minute meeting. Then, underscoring the rift, Yanukovych cautioned foreign states not to use religion for political ends. This was a direct hit at Moscow’s Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a devout supporter of a re-emerging empire with theocratic shadings and President Putin’s main instrument in coercing global Orthodoxy, and with it, economic and political integration, with Russia.
Russia’s myopic notion of one Russian World – a return to the way things were under the Soviet Union – is the reason President Yanukovych has resisted membership in its Customs Union, which also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus. President Yanukovych knows that his wealth, and that of Ukraine’s oligarchs, will be hostage to Russia’s aggressiveness. This was made clear when Russia lost patience with one of the leading agribusiness oligarchs when, days after arriving in Kyiv to spread “brotherly love,” it banned the import of Ukrainian candy.
Small wonder that Yanukovych would like to side with Europe – the EU would like it too – but first, he must free Yulia Tymoshenko.
It has been made quite clear that the illegal arrest and incarceration of the Opposition Leader cannot be dismissed by world democracies. The July 30th decision by the European Court of Human Rights confirmed that her rights were violated. The EU must take the Court’s decision into account. Those who have supported the EU Association Agreement and, in turn, the excesses of Yanukovych by crowing “Ukraine is more important than one woman” – some diaspora organizations and former President Viktor Yushchenko come to mind – missed the significance of the democratic cornerstone. In order to go forward, the President must release her.
There is much is to be gained from more European integration. It will help Ukraine in terms of rule of law, good governance, living standards and free movement; a much brighter future than the Russia alternative that Ukraine experienced under Soviet rule. If Yanukovych lets Tymoshenko go, most likely the EU’s November deadline for compliance will be extended. Other democracies, including Canada with some 1.3 million citizens of Ukrainian descent, will step up their own bilateral free trade negotiations, which were put on hold following Tymoshenko’s arrest.
Tymoshenko’s freedom is a huge play. It will set in motion great changes for Ukraine, Europe and, perhaps even the world. Canada has been in the forefront in making sure this happens. From day one, Prime Minster Stephen Harper, the Foreign Minister and others have urged President Yanukovych to do the right thing. Now, another nudge is needed to make sure he opens the right door.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is a former president of the U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm.