Waiting for the Next Bridge to Fall Down

By Wolodymyr Derzko

The recent train derailment near Lviv and sudden collapse of a main highway artery bridge in Minneapolis, USA are symptoms of larger systemic problems facing Ukraine, Canada, the USA and most developed countries in the coming decades. The Lviv phosphorus spill accident will likely be blamed on a combination of human error and breaches in safety regulations, poorly maintained rail cars and aging rail lines. The last two are the growing problem. Sadly, it won’t be the last rail accident or bridge to come falling down…to paraphrase the children’s nursery rhyme.

Back in 2001, the Society of Civil Engineers put out the following warning about the crumbling American infrastructure and involves more than just aging bridges, which US politicians have not heeded:

• 33% of major roads are considered substandard

• The cost was $5.8 billion to drivers (at the time of the 2001 report)

• Almost one third or 29% of bridges are considered structurally deficient

• $10.6 billion dollar cost to fix bridges that are past their life-cycle end (not new construction)

• 50,000 flight delays at USA airports

• 75% of the school buildings deemed inadequate

• 54,000 drinking water systems deemed inadequate

• 16,000 waste water systems near collapse

• 2,100 dams ruled unsafe

• 44% of inland  water systems obsolete

• 30% shortfall in annual electricity capacity

The same ratio likely applies to Canada but on a smaller scale. Our infrastructure was built around the same time as in the USA, if not earlier. Toronto’s sewage and water systems are over a century old rivalling Lviv’s dilapidated, leaking water system.

Ukraine has the same if not bigger aging infrastructure problem, which it inherited from the former Soviet Union.  Coupled with shoddy construction practices, poor adherence to existing building codes, quality & safety standards and the ubiquitous theft of construction materials on construction sites makes for an even great risk of acute failures today. Similar risk estimates are not publicly available for Ukraine’s aging infrastructure but Ukrainian Premier Victor Yanukovych in his 2004 election manifesto promised that “We shall invest people’s savings in the form of state and local loan bonds in the development of the utilities sector, public transport and the construction of roads and bridges”. Yet ask most villagers and city dwellers if this promise has been kept and you’ll get a blank stare back.

Historians will tell you that the greater the infrastructure outlay of a civilization, the greater the resources required to maintain it. As energy concerns mount, this maintenance becomes that much more expensive. More money goes into upkeep and less to new R&D, so the creative energy per capita of the society as a whole goes down. When Rome began to fall, maintenance demands on its expansive infrastructure had reached a critical limit, with fewer energy returns per capita.

Scientists have created an early warning system to detect pending catastrophic structural failure-like an external nervous system overlaid on bridges and other aging structures such as levees or dams. Researchers have developed what is termed “a single channel continuous sensor” that can detect the leading edge of a new crack, occurring anywhere in the region covered by the sensor. Essentially, the technology involves using commercially available sensors deployed in a unique configuration to acoustically monitor structural integrity to remotely detect and address standard flaws (essentially listening for the weak noise or acoustic “signature” that all cracks make). New cracks of course, will occur in between inspections. So saying that this bridge was just inspected last year and was deemed safe is not really reassuring to me.  Small cracks are like a cancer, usually not noticed until they’ve grown large enough to cause serious damage.  These sensors will detect the growth of cracks in their early stages “just as our nervous system alerts us of any injury immediately so that we can take action to limit the damage.” claim scientists

All this sensor technology costs money which many municipalities are short of today. We will only see this sensor technology in a few pilot projects so that politicians can then show the public that they are doing something.

We can look forward to rising taxes to pay for new infrastructure, rising utility bills or more user pay schemes. Count on seeing all three and more.

The signs which say “un-assumed road; drive at your own risk” may need to be modified to un-assumed life; live and use at your own risk.

Wolodymyr (Walter) Derzko is lecturing at the newly created Entrepreneurship & Innovation Certificate program at the University of Toronto, School of Continuing Studies