Going Back

By Volodymyr Kish

I will be leaving this week for a two week trip to Ukraine after an absence of some four years.  Much has happened since I was there last, and I am looking forward to seeing first-hand what the current mood is and gaining some sense of what the near future may hold for this troubled country.

Part of that will come during the formal sessions of the World Forum of Ukrainians as well as the annual meeting of the Ukrainian World Congress, which I will be attending as a guest.  Equally important though, will be the time I will be able to spend afterwards with friends and family throughout Central and Western Ukraine.  It is in their and their countrymen’s thoughts, hopes, feelings and opinions that the future of this beleaguered country lies.

Twenty years after independence, Ukraine continues to struggle towards becoming a truly democratic country.  As it reaches for a European future, it is being hampered by historical and political baggage from its past.  The legacy of several centuries of oppression by its northern neighbour continues to haunt its efforts, as the leftover Russian elite from Soviet colonial rule continue to control the levers of political and economic power.  At the same time, the majority Ukrainian population, inexperienced and nave in the art of the political game, wallow in endless infighting and factionalism, no doubt fuelled behind the scenes by the judicious application of almost limitless funds of the ruling oligarchs who are well versed in the tactics of dividing and enfeebling their opposition.

And yet we should not take the current situation as cause for despair.  For all of its current deficiencies, Ukraine is still a fairly open country.  There is still a free press, which albeit under some pressure, can and does criticize the government in power.  Although political persecution is increasingly becoming a concern, particularly with the recent legal assaults on former Yanukovych rival Yulia Tymoshenko, it is still nowhere near as pervasive and brutal as in Russia or Belarus.  The government, despite a noticeable rapprochement with the Putinocracy of its Russian neighbour, has no desire to return Ukraine to colonial status, but is rather seeking some kind of political state in equilibrium between the Europeans and the Russians.  And while the official economy is steps away from bankruptcy, the country remains blessed with agricultural and other resources that are the envy of most of its European neighbours.

There is nothing in the current situation in Ukraine that four or five years of effective and competent government couldn’t solve.  In addition, one must take into account the fact that Ukrainians are not the politically passive masses that their Russian neighbours are.  The more that Yanukovych attempts to reverse the progress and reforms of the past decade, the more he risks re-awakening the same forces that already once previously deposed him from power.  He must realize too, that if something similar occurs again, the consequences for him are not likely to be as benign as they were after the Orange Revolution.  The Ukrainian population is not going to be fooled twice.

I should of course qualify all of the above with the caution that my views and analysis of the situation in Ukraine come from the perspective of one looking at things from the distant and comfortable viewpoint of the Ukrainian community in Canada.  While it is true that I make a point of studying as many Ukrainian sources of information as I can and have an extensive network of contacts in Ukraine, nothing beats being on the scene to get a true sense of the spirit of the nation and where it seems to be heading.

All of which is why I am greatly looking forward to spending the next two weeks in Ukraine, both in the centre of the political maelstrom in Kyiv, as well as in the towns and villages where my many relatives live.  During that time, I hope to get a deeper and more informed understanding of the current reality, and form some reasoned conclusions as to where the country is heading, both short term and long term.