Can the Tymoshenko fiasco bring salvation?

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn,

Kyiv Post, August 10, 2011

On the eve of its 20^th birthday, politics in Ukraine are not good. Its President and other key players - Russia, the family of global democracies, the diaspora - need a turnaround if they care about moving forward, image and peace. It may surprise, but the fiasco involving the August 5 arrest of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko could become the catalyst for such good tidings, if wisdom prevails.

Although Russia has influenced political backsliding in the neighbourhood, it is Ukraine’s President who is responsible for the mess at home. Most odious, of course, is the persecution of the opposition with the over-the-top arrest of Tymoshenko. It was precipitated by her request to have Prime Minister Mykola Azarov’s testimony translated into Ukrainian, the official language of the country! If consequences weren’t so dire, the situation would be laughable. But President Viktor Yanukovych is playing with a time bomb and must defuse it or the situation may turn catastrophic. Some countries moved to higher diplomatic and military alert. However, things are rarely simple and the Slavic world has a long history of “enigmas wrapped in riddles” situations; this one is no exception.

Consider this.

Russia’s displeasure with Yanukovych has been growing for months. His worst “offence” was to say no to Russia’s customs union proposal. Russia means to use Kyiv’s tragic comedy to isolate him further and to cave. Statements in support of the rule of law in Ukraine are designed to reinforce this view and deny Ukraine the President’s preferred option, entry into a European trade agreement.

How ironic!

By refusing Russia, Yanukovych - for the first time since he’s been in office - united the oligarchs, patriotic citizens and the Ukrainian diaspora. None want Ukraine to join. In retaliation, Russia slapped tariffs on Ukraine’s steel and other commodities and cancelled Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit. [Russia] is bestowing a prestigious award on former President Leonid Kuchma, under renewed investigation for the 2000 murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze. Moscow’s Patriarch Kirill is a regular emissary, urging submission or threatening with the Wrath of God. The situation is Shakespearean in scope and complexity; and Russia aims to win.

And so should Ukraine. But how? The President’s disdain for democratic values is isolating him from those who might assist. Since Tymoshenko’s arrest, criticism by democracies has hardened. For the first time, the Ukrainian diaspora is pressuring its governments to tie agreements and funding to concrete political change. Yanukovych is trapped. Politically isolated leaders tend to make bad decisions. It is possible that too much distancing by democracies at this time will give Russia carte blanche to have its way, which is the very opposite of what he, Ukraine, the West and the diaspora would like.

As difficult as it is, the situation can be turned around, providing the right steps are taken. To redeem himself, Yanukovych must return to the rule of law. For starters, Tymoshenko must go free, the same for former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko and others. Without this, Yanukovych will not get support from Western countries to counter Russia’s pressure. The standoff with Russia makes it clear that the old Soviet buddy system is breaking down. Yanukovych must seek new ones or lose.

The release of opposition leaders will send a powerful message at home and abroad that a new era has begun in Ukraine. But global democracies must play their part too. Official statements urging Russia to back off must be coupled with concrete steps to integrate Ukraine into their midst. Canada’s potential free-trade agreement is but one illustration of what can be done.

Furthermore, Yanukovych might reconcile with the diaspora and seek its support in rebuilding relations with Western states. The Ukrainian World Congress, a global entity representing international diaspora, is meeting in Kyiv shortly and might consider a rapprochement if he acts appropriately.

The benefits of resetting Ukraine on a democratic path are considerable. Above all, Yanukovych can begin to reconcile with his people, a better relationship with the West and the diaspora. There are benefits for Russia, too.

By recognizing that national self-interest of a neighbour is a right which can produce a win-win for both, it will move towards becoming a powerful yet friendly modern state with whom it’s a pleasure to do business. This, more than anything, will contribute to a better image it is so anxious to gain. Immediately, it will lower tensions in the neighbourhood.

Much depends on what Yanukovych will do. He should be urged by friends like Canada to just do it and win. And give Ukraine something to celebrate on its birthday.

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is an international columnist and commentator.