A Subdued Anniversary

By Walter Kish

Ukraine celebrated its fifteenth anniversary of independence this past week, and it was, to say the least, a subdued affair.  No doubt, after the turbulent and disappointing political events of the past year, many Ukrainians are uncertain about whether Ukraine is now moving backward rather than forward on its long and difficult road to being a free, independent and democratic nation state.

     To make matters worse, there was a disastrous crash of a Russian plane earlier in the week, with all 170 passengers and crew left dead, their bodies scattered over a field near Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. President Yushchenko declared a mourning period and most of the celebrations scheduled for August 24, Independence Day, were postponed.

One of the few events that actually took place was a commemorative religious ceremony held at St. Sophia’s followed by a short, sombre speech from President Yushchenko to a sparse crowd on St. Sophia Square. Only a few thousand people gathered in the half-empty square. Though he strongly reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to the key issues of the Ukrainian language, the country’s integration into the EU and NATO, and the reformist principles of the Maidan, there was little passion or emotion evident, either from the speaker or the audience. Premier Yanukovych and former President Kuchma were both in attendance, though Ukraine’s first president after independence, Krawchuk, was strangely absent.

Speaking of political absences, there was another notable one earlier in the week when a memorial statue to former dissident and Rukh founder Vyacheslav Chornovil was unveiled by President Yushchenko in downtown Kyiv. Chornovil was killed in a suspicious car crash in 1999, prompting many to claim that it was in fact an assassination, and no accident. Though most of Ukraine’s leading political dignitaries were present for the unveiling, his son Taras failed to appear. Taras earned the enmity of most reform-minded Ukrainians during the last presidential elections when he defected from the ranks of Our Ukraine and joined the Party of Regions party, serving as Victor Yanukovych’s campaign manager. Ever since then, he has been tagged as a traitor to his father’s political beliefs and legacy. 

Interestingly enough, Taras’ chief, Premier Yanukovych, was in attendance for the unveiling, reinforcing his significant efforts to upgrade his image since being appointed premier. He has consciously striven, at least at the level of appearances, to be less regionally biased, confrontational and divisive and to project a more inclusive, broadminded and statesmanlike demeanour. He has obviously learned a few lessons from his political setbacks of the past few years, unlike most of the “Orange” political leaders, who continue to indulge in destructive political infighting, petty squabbles, ego trips and demonstrate a lack of political vision.

So Ukraine has reached another modest milestone in its political progress as a free and independent nation. Many political experts and academics have stated in recent weeks that Ukrainians should not get too down on recent events in Ukraine, citing notable and lasting fundamental achievements in the areas of free speech, a democratic electoral process, a rapidly growing private enterprise sector, and increasingly strong political and economic ties to the rest of the world. That is all true and commendable, and I have no doubts that Ukraine will continue to evolve, albeit likely in fits and starts, towards a brighter future.

However, one must also recognize that Ukrainians tend to be a rather emotional and passionate lot, and the perceived failure of the Orange Revolution was a serious blow to their psychological and spiritual wellbeing. What Ukraine and Ukrainians need most at the moment is something that will re-energize and restore their passion and belief in their country and its future. A pervasive cynicism has settled into public consciousness and it will take strong leaders with vision to motivate and dispel the rampant fatalism. More importantly, the people need leaders who can be trusted to actually act on their promises.

Sad to say, there are few obvious candidates for this role. Yulia Tymoshenko certainly has the potential, but she needs to overcome some of her sharp edges, particularly her tendencies towards authoritarianism, populism and polarization before she will succeed in rallying the majority of Ukraine’s disenchanted population.

In the meantime, Ukraine can look forward to yet another year as a relatively free and independent country. I am sure the year will have its share of momentous events and surprises, hopefully of a more positive kind than what we saw in the last 12 months.