Yanukovych and His Road to Salvation

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn

While driving Vujko Ilko to church on Sunday, I’m exposed to his mental callisthenics - insights into matters Ukrainian. 

“I’ll start with the good news,” says Vujko.  “That Ukraine-hater Tabachnyk is being removed from Ukraine’s Cabinet.”  Uncle Ilko means the Minister of Education, Science, Youth and Sports who has been one of the most odious government figures; a seditionist and Ukraine hater, and a lightning rod for anti-Yanukovych sentiments.  

“He claims Ukraine is not a nation; Ukrainian not an important language but urges studies of Hebrew.  A man like that would have fallen in Canada before he could finish his breakfast.”

“What do you think this means, Vujku?”

“President Yanukovych is tilting westward.  He’s concerned about being swallowed-up by Russia.  Ukraine’s oligarchs, as self-serving as they are, don’t want to move into the free zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.  They made the President propose a 3+1 option, but Russia said ‘nyet’.”

“This is a seriously independent position.  Will Russia let Ukraine win?”

“Depends on where Yanukovych can turn for support.  Right now, the West is appalled by the politically motivated arrests of opposition members.  Yulia Tymoshenko’s arrest was over the top.  Everyone protested; the US, the EU, Canada too.”

“I read the protests from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, former Canadian ambassadors to Ukraine, and parliamentarians.”

“Yes.  Good stuff.  Yanukovych made a stupid mistake back sliding on democracy just to be like Russia.  Who will support him now as his former ‘friend’ tightens the screws?”

I wait for Uncle Ilko’s response.  It seems Ukraine is wedged between a rock and a hard place once again.

“The only way out for Yanukovych is let Yulia go.  His protests that he is not “interested” in the court case because there is an independent judiciary [that is not credible].  Judge Rodion Kireyev is a manipulated pawn.  He must find a way to end the show trial just like he found a ‘legal’ way to arrest her.  If nothing else, grant her a ‘pardon’.”

The Yulia fiasco has made Ukraine and Yanukovych the laughing stock of the world; with a sharp edge.  Although Ukraine’s authorities claim EU trade negotiations are not coupled to her trial, the arrest, as well as that of some fifty others, including Yuriy Lutsenko, the former head of Ukraine’s security apparatus, behind bars since last winter’s abduction, is a stumbling block to moving forward.

“No way should our global community let up the pressure.  It was a good move for leaders of the Ukrainian World Congress and the Ukrainian Canadian Congress representatives to attend her trial and remind the President to respect the rule of law. This must continue.”

“What about demonstrations?”

“Absolutely.  The ones organized in Toronto by that new group was heard around the world.  There should be a call to support democracy in Ukraine at every diaspora event; from every pulpit.  Look, the slippage back to dictatorship is dangerous.  If not contained, more than just the opposition will suffer.  Freedom of assembly was already jeopardized during Independence Day celebrations; the media will be silenced; and the churches too, other than those belonging to the Moscow Patriarch, of course.”

“Hold on, Vujku.  You’re contradicting yourself.  On the one hand, you’re saying Yanukovych is turning West, on the other, you’re telling me he’s following Moscow’s example.”

“That’s his dilemma.  That’s why he needs friends.  He’s torn between getting Mr. Putin off his back while convinced that ‘porjadok’, control at home comes from old Soviet methods of force which Russia is turning to.  What the West needs to convince him about is that good government comes from pro-Ukrainian policies - EU and democratic integration, rule of law, and economic prosperity of Ukraine’s people.  And it must start with the release of Yulia and the others.”

“Her release will be a visible indicator of change?”

“Yup.  He must be convinced to do it.  This is why the call for economic sanctions against Ukraine is not good.  Russia would like that - isolate Ukraine, for sanctions will do this - and then it will pounce.”

“I never thought of it that way, Uncle.  The prevailing view is to punish Yanukovych.”

“No.  Get him to do the right thing, and avoid punishing Ukraine at the same time.  Sanctions will stop the good work being done there by the West - judicial and bureaucratic reforms, Chornobyl closure, student exchanges - will all stop.  It will take years to restart.  No, my vote is to freeze bank accounts of individual criminals - oligarchs and corrupt judges - and deny them entry to the West.

“Right now, this is the key move:  get Prime Minister Harper to call Mr. Yanukovych as a concerned friend.  Remind him that Canada wants to sign a free trade agreement, as do others.  Ukraine does not have to go cave to Russia’s free trade zone.  But Ukraine must show that it is returning to democratic values.  Yulia’s freedom is the most visible sign.”

“Vujku, our community is honouring the Prime Minister in October with a UCC Taras Shevchenko Medal.  Perhaps he can make an announcement then.”

“Too late!  He must call now to prevent a sentence.”

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn

is an international columnist