Revolution to Evolution

By Walter Kish

For the past eight months, Ukrainians have lived on the hopes and dreams created by what became known as the Orange Revolution.  Ukraine was finally free of the shackles of the oligarchic regime that was spawned upon the dissolution of a decrepit and discredited Soviet Union. The good guys were in power, and greed, corruption and political immorality would soon be a thing of the past.  Ukraine would finally realize its true potential among the nations of Europe and the world.   This past week, the revolution and all the optimism created in its wake came to a dispiriting halt.

It started with the surprise resignation of President Yushchenko’s chief of staff Oleksander Zinchenko.  He quit, citing serious allegations that some of the president’s key advisors and ministers, including Petro Poroshenko, were engaged in corrupt practices and had isolated the president from other members of the coalition of forces that had brought him to power.  He felt that the revolution had been betrayed.  He was joined the next day by Deputy PM Mykola Tomenko who echoed many of the same feelings. 

The political crisis that ensued exacerbated the serious rift that has existed between the two main blocs in Yushchenko’s coalition, namely those allied with Petro Poroshenko and those standing behind Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.  The subsequent mudslinging and ultimatums eventually pushed Yushchenko into firing the whole cabinet.  Yulia Tymoshenko felt particularly aggrieved, and, in a subsequent emotional appearance on television, claimed that the dismissal of her government was unfair, unnecessary and illogical.  She indicated that she did not blame Yushchenko personally but felt that he was being seriously mislead and manipulated by his inner circle of friends and advisors, key among them being Petro Poroshenko.  It is well known that Poroshenko is a close friend of Yushchenko’s and a godfather to one of Yushchenko’s daughters.  It seems that he is now being accused of being a godfather of a much more sinister kind.

President Yushchenko has a political mess in his hands.  His credibility and popularity have suffered significantly from this latest scandal, though it must be said that the decline was already in progress, as people in recent months were becoming disillusioned with the slow progress on many of the reforms and changes that had been promised.  The lack of discipline and subsequent disintegration of his coalition team has called his leadership capabilities into question.

Increasingly, it now looks like the key to the revolution's future will lie in the Parliamentary elections coming up in March.  Yushchenko has six month to repair his tattered image and get his revolution back on track.  He has appointed a capable and loyal old stalwart Yuriy Yekhanurov as acting Prime Minister.  Yekhanurov was Yushchenko’s First Deputy PM in 2001 when Yushchenko was himself PM.  Yekhanurov, unlike Tymoshenko, can be counted on to explicitly carry out Yushchenko’s programs without having his own agenda.  He is well respected by all sides and, though an ethnic Buryat born in Siberia, he speaks excellent Ukrainian and is one of the most experienced and competent politicians in Ukraine.  The remainder of the new cabinet will likely consist of a large number of the existing ministers, though Yushchenko would be wise to exclude those who have been tainted by corruption allegations. 

The next six months will also be crucial in determining who will become the dominant political player subsequent to the Parliamentary elections.  If Yushchenko wants to continue to lead the revolution he started, he must become a much more aggressive and hands-on president.  He must press his reforms and accelerate the pace of restructuring the government and cleaning out the large number of bureaucrats who continue to display all the same corrupt practices and characteristics of the previous Kuchma regime.  Failure to do so will undoubtedly play into Tymoshenko’s hand, and she would likely emerge as the winner next March.  Everyone acknowledges her dominance as a speaker and campaigner and she will undoubtedly capitalize on the turmoil and accusations surrounding Yushchenko’s team as well as his lack of forceful leadership.

In the wake of this week’s events, many might conclude that the revolution has failed.  To do so would be wrong.  One should not forget that Ukraine has taken a giant step forward in the past year.  Structural and legislative changes have been put in place to inhibit many of the more odious practices of the previous regime. Whatever happens, there will not be a turning back to the old days of a controlled media, rigged elections, tacit acceptance of graft and corruption, and a selling out of Ukraine’s political and economic future to Russian interests.  The genie is out of the bottle and cannot be put back. 

True, the road ahead will not be without its problems and detours, but a people once empowered are not going to sell their rights out easily or cheaply.  As one Kyiv resident put it, this was not Yushchenko’s or Tymoshenko’s revolution, but the Ukrainian people’s revolution.  In the words of one local political pundit, Ukraine has simply shifted gears from revolution to evolution.