By the Numbers

By Walter Kish

The Ukrainian parliamentary election is now only three weeks away, and the polls and predictions are coming in thick and fast.  The numbers vary considerably from poll to poll, not surprising in a country where anything can be bought for the right price, including a favourable poll.  Nonetheless, there seems to be a consensus that only four parties are likely to break the three percent threshold minimum required to enter Parliament  - Regions, eponymous Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT), Our Ukraine – People’s Self Defence (OU – PSD) and the Communists. 

I have done an analysis of five election polls done in recent weeks and have found the ranges to be approximately as follows:  Regions 27% to 35%, BYuT 18% to 27%, OU - PSD 11% to 18%, and the Communists 3.6% to 7%.  My best educated guess of final results will be Regions – 31%, BYuT – 23%, OU – PSD – 14%, and the Communists – 4%.

So how does this translate into seats in the 450 member Verkhovna Rada (VR)?  Ukrainian parliamentary elections are based on a proportional representation system, which means that the percent of the popular vote that each party gets directly determines the number of seats they get in the VR.  However, to limit the number of parties to a manageable number and make the VR more workable, there is a minimum cut off point of three percent.  Those parties that garner less than three percent of the national vote get no seats in the VR.  The seats that would have otherwise gone to these parties were there not a minimum requirement then get redistributed proportionally to those parties that did make the minimum cut.

So applying the above final predicted percentages against 450, you initially get 140 seats for the Regions, 104 for BYuT, 63 for OU – PSD, and 18 for the Communists, for a total of 325 seats.  The remaining 125 seats representing the votes of those parties that didn’t make the 3% minimum, then get allocated to those parties that did, in the same proportion as their seats gained in the above first cut allocation.  This would give the Regions party an additional 54 seats for a total of 194, BYuT and additional 40 seats for a total of 144, OU – PSD an additional 24 seats for a total of 87, and the Communists an additional 7 seats for a total of 25.

Should the BYuT and OU – PSD forces align themselves in a coalition as they have promised, this would give them a total of 231 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, or a slim majority of six seats, but still enough to form the government.  However, it is clear that a swing of just a couple of percentage points either way can make a big difference as to who forms the government.  It therefore, becomes crucial for each party to get maximum voter turnout of their supporters.

The number of voters casting their ballots for one of the thirty plus fringe parties registered in this election will also be decisive.  For the most part, they play a spoiler’s role, siphoning away key percentage points from the true contenders.  Although, superficially, they may seem to represent a democratic expression of minority opinions, knowledgeable insiders claim that many of these fringe parties are artificial creations funded by political manipulators with deep pockets aimed at diluting the popular vote of the main reform parties.  The challenge for BYuT and the OU – PSD blocs then is to persuade the disaffected populace to vote for one of them rather than waste their votes on the fringe parties, thereby, also giving an additional share of seats to the Regions party and their allies.

Undoubtedly, this will be a hotly contested election, and with fewer outside observers this time around than in the previous few elections, the temptation for fraud and manipulation poses a real risk to it being truly fair and transparent.  If the final results prove to be as close as predicted, then you will likely see a flurry of accusations, challenges, legal suits and turmoil before the dust settles and a government is formed.

On the other hand, Ukrainian voters have served up surprises before, and may prove the pollsters wrong again.  By most accounts, Tymoshenko has been gaining momentum as the election progresses and may just show everyone that the “Braid” will once again be back in charge.