Strategic Thinking Anticipates Russia Pressuring Ukraine

By Walter Derzko

In recent days, Russia has complained that Ukraine has become politically “unfriendly”. It has also threatened to protect the interest of all Russians abroad in the Medvedev Doctrine. The real source of Moscow’s anxiety and angst is Ukraine’s new political and security orientation. The invasion of Georgia has sparked comparisons to Crimea. Personally, I’m not too concerned about a threat to Crimea. Ukraine could easily halt any foreign troops by simply shutting off water, gas, oil and electricity to Crimea, which is dependent on Ukraine for all its utilities.

But short of using military force, Russia does have a number of ways of pressuring Ukraine, which are equally serious. I hope that behind closed doors of the Defence and Foreign Affairs Ministry, The National Security and Defence Council and the Diplomatic Academy, we are seeing the kind of anticipatory strategic thinking and discussions that will shortly be needed.

One is energy. Ukraine is currently overly dependent on Russian energy, particularly gas, which they have clearly used as a foreign policy instrument in the past. Ukraine currently pays $179 per 1,000 cubic metres for Russian gas—three times what it paid in 2004. There have been rumours that Moscow is considering doubling that price, come winter-time. Russia’s long-term strategy is to try to wrestle control of Ukraine’s pipelines by either raiding them, bankrupting them or politically twisting Ukraine’s arm to transfer control to a joint venture, as it did in Belarus, thus enabling it to control both the supply and distribution of gas to Ukraine. Russia already has controlling interest in Ukraine’s refineries, which they conveniently shut down for maintenance a few summers ago, spiking gasoline costs which contributed to the downfall of the Tymoshenko government.

Ukraine actually holds the upper hand here but it has not used this strategic capability to its advantage. Most people forget that it was Ukraine that supplied gas to most of the Soviet “empire”. Russia strategically decided to phase out Ukraine’s gas supply infrastructure and resettle many of its gas experts-chemists and engineers to Siberia, to build Russia’s new oilfields, gas wells and pipelines. Ukraine should start a reverse brain drain to entice these experts who are still young enough, back from Siberia and begin redevelopment of Ukraine’s gas potential with today’s new technology. Today you don’t even have to drill for gas any more. Coal-to-Liquid and Coal-to-Gas technology can turn Ukraine into a new regional energy power. Crimea is also ideally suited for Algae-to-Gasoline farms and anaerobic bacteria can turn coal to gas and agricultural or human waste to ethanol or directly into diesel or gasoline. Ukraine has the R&D expertise in this area and potentially the investors to turn this capability into commercial ventures. Since Ukraine now controls the gas distribution lines to Europe, it decides whose gas it wants to pump to Europe - it’s own or Russian gas. As a benefit, any older Ukrainian experts, who are approaching pension age, who worked both the Ukrainian and Siberian gas fields should be invited to retire to Crimea, thus balancing out the Russian and Ukrainian speaking populations. One other energy weakness is uranium enrichment, to which Russia could cut access. Ukraine should be making contingency plans including local enrichment and Canada could be of help here as well.

The Black Sea Fleet is the second tension point. Under a 1997 agreement, Russia has rights for its fleet in Sevastopil until 2017. Ukraine is pressing to begin discussions on fleet withdrawal, but Russia is dragging its feet, suggesting that Moscow may have alternate motives. Here again Ukraine is not using all its influence. Russia should be paying full price –over a billion dollars per year for rental, and not the meager 100 million dollars or so in lieu of gas debt. Also Ukraine should start using its environmental legislation, to get Russia to start cleaning up the naval base now from oil and other hazardous waste and spills.

Crimea itself represents a third potential flash point, especially after the Russian Consulate has been issuing Russian passports to Crimean citizens. Ukrainian officials fear that Russia could try to foment separatist movements in Crimea as a means of putting pressure on Ukraine to curb its ties to the West. Again what are the benefits to Ukraine under these circumstances? Since dual citizenship is illegal, Ukraine should welcome these new Russian passport holders, but require them to turn in their Ukrainian passports and be taken off all voter lists-thus living in limbo. They should be put on notice-should they commit any illegal acts like promoting separatism or vote in the elections, they could face deportation or be declared persona non grata.

The above scenarios could be fictitious and the result of over-imagination of an armchair strategist but should illustrate the kind of strategic cognitive thinking that is needed in today’s difficult geopolitical times.

 Walter (Wolodymyr) Derzko teaches innovation and entrepreneurship at several post secondary institutions.