Yulia Rules

By Walter Kish

As I write this, some 97% of the votes in the Ukrainian parliamentary elections have been counted, and it appears that Yulia Tymoshenko has surprised more than a few people, the Regions party in particular.  Although the Party of Regions with their captive base in the east and the south garnered some 34% of the vote as expected, Yulia’s bloc (BYuT) finished much higher than most had forecasted with about 31% of the vote.  Even optimistic polls had her doing no better than the high twenties before the elections. 

Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine – People’s Self Defence (OU-PSD) Bloc gained an unimpressive 14% of votes cast, while the odious Communists will be returning to Parliament with about 5% of the vote.  In another surprise, Volodymyr Lytvyn made an unexpected return to the parliamentary scene with his bloc registering about 4% of the vote.  In the last election in 2006, Lytvyn’s bloc had failed to make the minimum 3% barrier.

What all this means in term of seats in the Verkhovna Rada (VR) is that if BYuT and OU-PSD form a coalition as they have indicated, they will have an absolute though slim majority in the VR with 230 out of its 450 seats.  Should the Lytvyn bloc join the coalition, which is possible, that would add another 20 seats to their majority.

Of course, this all presumes that the Party of Regions will cooperate in forming the official opposition, an assumption that is more than a little shaky.  Yanukovych only grudgingly agreed to participate in the election and hinted on more than one occasion that he would not accept any outcome other than the one that had him winning and returning to power.  He and the Party of Regions will undoubtedly do everything they can to challenge the validity of the vote and hamper the formation of a Tymoshenko led government.  The next few weeks will be a mighty challenge indeed for Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and the re-born Orange coalition. 

Yushchenko in particular will need to take decisive and quick action to ensure that the results stand and the political scene does not degenerate into chaos.  It is particularly important that there be no long drawn out negotiation with the Tymoshenko bloc over the makeup of the new government.  The voters have made their preferences clear and Yushchenko should do everything he can to facilitate the creation of the new Orange coalition and a new cabinet with Yulia as Prime Minister as soon as possible.

For Tymoshenko, the challenge will be no less onerous, as she returns to power for the second time in recent years.  She has indicated that she has learned from the mistakes of her first stint as Prime Minister and it will be interesting to see if she indeed brings new wisdom and discipline to her governing style. 

Several things will be crucial if the Orange movement is to succeed this time around.  Most important will be a determined and strong attack on the corruption that pervades all levels of government, and to bring to justice the many oligarchs and politicians that have stolen the country blind in the past decade, shielded by the cloak of parliamentary immunity.  The Ukrainian populace was grievously disenchanted with the lack of real reform in the wake of the Orange Revolution, and until they see a significant number of the worst offenders in jail, the credibility of any new government will remain in doubt.

There must also be real progress in land privatization, agricultural reform, constitutional reform, reduction in bureaucracy and red tape, and an acceleration of efforts on joining the WTO and European integration.  Enough time has been wasted over the past two years and a continuation of the farcical chaos that has characterized Ukrainian politics during that time will only lead to political scenarios that bode ill for all.

The next few weeks will show whether Ukraine’s politicians have learned their lessons and really have the welfare of the country and its people at heart.