End of an Era

By Volodymyr Kish

The first round of the Presidential Elections in Ukraine produced no real surprises.  As predicted, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko garnered the most votes – 35% and 25%, respectively.  As was also widely foreseen, the current President, Viktor Yushchenko suffered electoral humiliation, receiving only 5.45% of the votes cast.  Undoubtedly, most Ukrainians disenchanted and frustrated with his unwillingness or inability to deliver on all the promises he had so grandly and forcefully made during the Orange Revolution, have consigned him to the dustbin of history.

As a postscript to his defeat, several days ago, President Yushchenko finally awarded the designation of Hero of Ukraine to Stepan Bandera, long-time nemesis of the Communist regime before, during and even after the Second World War.  Had the award come at the beginning of his Presidency, it would have been justly lauded as a courageous and principled act; coming as it does in the last week of his Presidency, it is being looked at more as crass opportunism desperately aimed at shoring up his patriotic legacy.  As one of my colleagues still living in Ukraine put it – “Too little, too late!”  The Yushchenko era ends, not with a bang, and not even with a whimper, but with, as my father would say – “styd I hanba” (shame and disgrace).

So we are now faced with the big showdown between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, who now have a few weeks to try and corral the votes of the other has-beens in the first round.  Aside from Yushchenko’s 5.45%, the other major blocs of votes up for grabs include third place finisher Serhiy Tyhypko’s 13% and Arseniy Yatseniuk’s 7%.  Most expert observers agree that Tymoshenko has the better chance at growing her share of the vote, noting that Yanukovych with his 35% has likely gotten all the votes he is going to get and has little room for upward growth.  Nonetheless, he does have a 10% lead and the onus will be on Tymoshenko to do everything she can to get the other contender’s supporters to come out and vote for her on February 7^th.

Despite the fact that Yushchenko during the campaign focussed his attacks more on Tymoshenko than on Yanukovych, I would hazard a guess that his supporters are much more likely now to turn to Tymoshenko than to Yanukovych.  Likewise, most of Yatseniuk’s supporters are based in Central and Western Ukraine and are of the reformist mindset, so they too would also likely swing to Tymoshenko.  Tyhypko’s vote is a little more broad based covering Central, Southern and Eastern Ukraine, and he has during his career been part of both Yanukovych’s as well as Tymoshenko’s political machines. So, his vote is a little more problematic and how it splits may prove to be the key to the final outcome.

You can bet that there is a lot of manoeuvring going on with the two leading contenders trying to wrangle the support of Tyhypko and Yatseniuk, who for the time being are staying mum.  Tymoshenko is a master in backroom politics and will no doubt be going all out to seize the upper hand.  You can be sure that the remaining weeks of campaigning will be intense with Tymoshenko goading the intellectually challenged Yanukovych into saying something politically damaging, something he is prone to do.

Regardless of who wins, one thing is fairly clear – both contenders have voiced their intentions of establishing better relations with Russia.  In the case of Yanukovych, the approach is a natural one, whereas for Tymoshenko it is a case of real world pragmatism.  President Obama has made it pretty clear that he would like to have better relations with Russia and, as a consequence, has put the idea of having Ukraine or Georgia join NATO on the back burner.  Europe, increasingly dependent on Russia for its natural gas and oil supplies,  has also indicated that it is in no hurry to see Ukraine join their little club, so Ukraine is pretty well left to fend on its own.  Lacking any commitments from either the US, NATO or Europe, it has no choice but to try and seek some kind of accommodation with its northern neighbour.  So get used to Ukraine moving a little closer to Russia in terms of both its domestic and foreign policy; it frankly has no other choice.

The biggest difference between a Tymoshenko and a Yanukovych Presidency will be in the economic and governance spheres.  With Yanukovych, you will see a return to the crony, oligarchic capitalism of the Kuchma era and a continuation of the corruption that pervades the country both in the private and public sectors.  He and his ilk simply know of no other way of governing. 

Tymoshenko is driven more by populist ideals, which are both her strength and her weakness.  Ukraine stands a better chance with her at the helm of finally making some headway towards a fairer and more just, civil society.  However, her erratic populist tendencies have also created economic uncertainty and created significant doubt in her abilities to manage her way out of the financial morass that Ukraine currently finds itself in.  If she winds up being President, she will need to develop a more responsible and consistent approach to the country’s economic affairs.  She will also have to find ways to significantly curb the obstructionist influence of the ruling oligarchic elite.  She will have a challenge of monumental proportions; it is one that I am sure she is eager to tackle.