“Choice Between the Plague and AIDS”?

By Dr. Myron Kuropas

O.K., so we’re all agreed.  Ukraine’s recent election was no surprise, not to the citizens of Ukraine, not to the Diaspora.

As predicted, the people of Western and Central Ukraine, those more ethnically Ukrainian, voted for Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko.  The inhabitants of Southern and Eastern Ukraine, the more Russian element of the population, voted for Viktor Yanukovych.

A runoff between the pro-Muscovite Viktor Yanukovych, and the “what’s in it for-me” candidate Yulia Tymoshenko, is scheduled for February 7.  Ukrainians will encounter a “Morton’s Fork” as it were, that is, no real choice.  As Yulia Mostovaya, editor of Zerkalo Nedeli, explained, it’s like a choice “between the plague and AIDS”. 

What a difference from 2004 and 2005!  I was in Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, when Viktor Yushchenko was inaugurated and later on the Maidan when he spoke to the people of Ukraine.  It was a festive time. Thousands of people stood in the bitter cold enthusiastically hanging on to Viktor’s every word.  There was joy in their eyes, hope in their hearts, and a sense of accomplishment.  People were exhilarated.  Ukraine, I thought, was finally having its “moment in the sun”.  Ukraine’s elation spread throughout the world; orange became the colour of the moment, and being Ukrainian was suddenly fashionable.

“All that enthusiasm has now turned to fatigue,” concluded The Economist on January 21.  “Ukraine’s under-reformed economy teeters on the edge of national bankruptcy, the rule of law is elusive, courts remain corrupt, and the Parliament resembles a trading platform for business tycoons in which deals are made and seats bought and sold. In April 2005, some 53% of Ukrainians said their country was on the right track. Now, 81% believe it is headed in the wrong direction.” 

Last January, the Heritage Foundation released its annual Index of Economic Freedom.  Of the 179 nations ranked, Canada came in 7^th, the United States 8^th.  Estonia and Kazakhstan, two former Soviet republics, came in 16^th and 82^nd, respectively.  The African republic of Burkina Faso was 90^th.  Ukraine ranked 162^nd. 

So what went wrong?  Much of the blame belongs to Viktor Yushchenko himself.  He’s a nice person but hardly the kind of tough guy Ukraine needed.  Viktor promised to end corruption and to imprison Ukraine’s criminal class, beginning with those who attempted to kill him.  He did neither.  Other than attempting to raise the national consciousness of the people of Ukraine domestically (a more patriotic president Ukraine will never have), and pursuing a Western-oriented foreign policy aimed at planting  Ukraine firmly in the Western European sphere (“away from Moscow”, in the words of Mykola Skrypnyk), Viktor Yushchenko had no discernible agenda, no measurable, well-articulated goals, and no timetable.  A poor judge of character, he rewarded favourites who later betrayed him, played the populist card to gain support among voters (angering the IMF in the process), and appeared to go out of his way to antagonize allies. 

Adding to Yushchenko’s own inherent weaknesses is the fact that a constitutional amendment during the Orange Revolution removed the power to appoint the Prime Minister from the Office of the President and gave it to the Verkhovna Rada. And it is here that most of the fault for Ukraine’s current paralysis lies.  Ukrainians do not vote for individual candidates to parliament but rather for individuals heading a list of candidates.  As such, there is no local representation as we understand it in North America, nor is there any accountability. Ukrainian MP’s passed laws early on making them immune from prosecution. 

A shadowy gang of self-enriching billionaire reprobates runs Ukraine’s Parliament. They include Rinat Akhmetov, Borys Kolesnykov, and Andriy Klyuev.  These three, along with Mykola Azarov, Yuriy Boyko, and Serhiy Lyovchkin, are all confidants of Yanukovych, who among his other accomplishments, spent time in prison for assault and battery.  Not to worry, he also holds a doctorate, one of many available for the right price.

So where does this leave us?   Diaspora pundits are divided. Some favour Tymoshenko, others Yanukovych. And the “4^th Wave”?   According to the Ukrainian Consulate in Chicago, some 4,000 voted in the 2004 Presidential Elections.  Less than a thousand voted in 2010 in the first round of the Presidential Elections. The 4^th Wave has given up.  

Let’s agree again. Both candidates for the February second round election are crooks in their own way.   It’s all relative, of course.  Yulia may be a chameleon but her love of power suggests she won’t bow to anyone, especially Moscow.  Yanukovych is too comfortable with Russia. He supports two official languages and a “neutral Ukraine”, the first step to Soviet-style “Finlandization”.

Given a choice between two crooks, I’m rooting for Yulia. She’s “nasha” - ours.  Who knows, she may yet surprise even her most virulent detractors.  Go Yulia!