Winners and Losers in Ukraine’s Elections: But Who Will Rule?

By Oksana Bashuk Hepburn

Two days before the election, Russia’s Ambassador to Ukraine Victor Chornomirdin stated that energy prices to Ukraine this winter will depend on who wins the election.  Two days after the Orange forces won the election, Russia’s Gazprom declared that Ukraine has a 1.3 billion dollar energy debt.   Former Prime Minister Yanukovych and the Minister of Energy, the incompetent Yurij Boyko—both from the losing Party of Regions - headed off to Moscow.  Equally bad, the President of Ukraine, Victor Yushchenko is at it again.  He is muddying the political waters by calling for a united government comprising the top three parties, a ploy that prevented the Orange forces from forming the government following the March 2006 Parliamentary Elections.

So who are the winners and losers of the September 30 elections?

Despite attaining the highest number of votes, the biggest loser is the ruling Party of Regions.  It failed to hold power.  Only 34 % of Ukrainian voters backed it.  The other big loser is Oleksandr Moroz.  His Socialists failed to pass the 3 % barrier required to sit in Ukraine’s Parliament.  After the March 2006 elections, Moroz abandoned the Orange forces to join Yanukovych.  Now, he is being punished.  One attractive Kyiv voter summed up the prevailing attitude: “Anyone but Moroz.” 

The under-performance of the two key pro-Russia parties is bad news for them.  It prevents them from taking power in Parliament.  And, it is bad news for President Vladimir Putin.  What will be his moves to protect Russia’s interests in view of the Orange victory?

Undeniably, the big winner is BYuT, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc, pulling in over 30% of the votes.  Her political staying power and momentum are impressive.  Twice dismissed by President Victor Yushchenko as the Prime Minister, she has put personal animosities aside to cobble, again and again, an Orange coalition knowing full well that without a united presence the pro-West forces are doomed.  The voters have rewarded her with growing support in the last three elections.  Moreover, in this election she made inroads beyond the historically pro-West regions of Ukraine, winning handsomely in Central and parts of South Eastern Ukraine.  She is poised to form the new Orange government.  But why is the President stalling? 

A big winner and someone to watch is the phoenix-like resurrection of Volodymyr Lytvyn.  Parliament’s Speaker under President Kuchma returns after a two year political absence.  His bloc obtained nearly 4%. It is expected that he will support the Regions although his greater ambitions will dictate a winning strategy which may lend support to issues with popular appeal, regardless of party affiliation. 

What about Nasha Ukraina-Natsional’na Samo Oborona (NU-NSO) backing President Yushchenko? 

Although they placed third after BYuT and the Regions receiving nearly 15% of the vote, they and in particular the Our Ukraine faction, cannot be counted as a winner.  The force that brought millions to contest and win the fraudulent presidential elections in 2002 has been loosing ground steadily.  Its former supporters are disappointed in the President’s inability to deal with Russia’s meddling in Ukraine’s affairs, in particular his capitulation to Russia’s grab of the energy sector, and his failure to deal with corruption. NU-NSO is seen as splintered and quarrelsome.  One positive move has been to bring young Yurij Lutsenko, a high-profile freedom fighter and Orange Revolution figure into its team. His NSO gave Our Ukraine a boost.  Immediately after the election results, he made a public statement supporting Tymoshenko.  Our Ukraine did not, illustrating once again why many of its former supporters have moved over to BYuT.   And if the President does not call for the formation of an Orange government very soon, he might be left without a party altogether: Our Ukraine will disappear because the people will lose faith in it altogether.

And the people know what they want and how to make their vote count.  The people were the greatest winners in these elections.  They switched loyalties in order to reward those who espouse their values and protect their well being. They created winners and losers and made a choice for a new government.  But will they get it?

The alliance between Yulia Tymoshenko and the NU-NSO entitles them to form the government.  The opposition will comprise the Regions’ Victor Yanukovych together with the Communists.  The big question is which side Voldoymyr Lytvyn will support.  Even without him, the Orange power has the numbers as they had in March 2006.  At that time, the President uttered phrases about a three way unity, went as far as signing a meaningless unity treaty, and basically stalled, stalled, stalled!  This gave the Party of Regions – read Russia – time to buy-over some of the elected deputies at a rumored price of up to one million dollars, and a shot at getting a majority and form a government.

 Will the President do this again?  Let’s hope not!

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is the President of U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm, and a commentator.