The Tymoshenko End Game

Volodymyr Kish 

The EU summit in Vilnius in November is rapidly approaching, and for better or worse, Ukraine’s future will be on the line. On the agenda for the EU members is whether to grant Ukraine an association agreement that would greatly open up the economic and political prospects for this country that straddles the European and Asian divide.

To us in the diaspora, the issue is a no brainer – Ukraine clearly belongs within the European Community. Unfortunately Ukraine’s northern neighbor Russia, led by the latest in a long series of imperialist autocrats, Putin, is equally determined to re-incorporate Ukraine into a new Russian empire. For the past decade, he has been waging a fierce campaign of intimidation and bribery aimed at once again making Ukraine a vassal state or colony. No doubt, part of the reason is economic. After all, Ukraine is one of the richest countries in Europe in terms of natural resources. But I am convinced that the primary reason is far more visceral and psychological. Russia, and many Russians, have an almost pathological need to conquer and dominate, a sort of national machismo that prevents them from joining the larger commonwealth of civilized nations. Having lost their prime possession, Ukraine, is an ego blow that must be rectified.

Caught in the middle is Ukraine’s current government, a self-serving bunch of oligarchs let by President Yanukovich, an enigmatic modern day warlord encompassing equal parts of greed, envy, street smarts, cruelty, shrewdness, amorality, spitefulness and ego. He has been ruthless in consolidating his power and undercutting or eliminating his political foes. In the process, he and his supporters have managed to become ridiculously affluent by funneling much of Ukraine’s natural wealth into their own pockets.

Times have been rather good for Yanukovich and his gang of late, but they are now faced with a hard choice. They must decide whether to cast their lot with the European Union or become a junior partner in Putin’s vision of a new Russian Empire. Now, Yanukovich being who he is, obviously can have no delusions about what being a “junior partner” in Putin’s vision means. It would be no less than a return to the kind of domination and oppression that Ukraine has suffered for centuries under the Russian “fraternal” yoke. Now I doubt whether Yanukovich really cares much about the future of his country or countrymen. There is no sign that he has ever shown a trace of altruism. What I am sure he knows though, is that Putin would waste little time in putting him and his band of oligarchs in their proper place – namely stripped of all real power and wealth and likely either in prison or in graves. The pattern has been well established in Russia ever since he came to power. Putin will not tolerate autonomy, dissent or competition.

One would think therefore that the choice should be a simple one. However there is also a major risk in turning to the European Union. The EU has made a long list of demands before it will allow Ukraine to join, most of them dealing with necessary reforms Ukraine must make in the spheres of human rights, political freedom, transparency, justice and elimination of corruption at all levels. As a symbol of good faith, they have also made it clear that unless he releases his primary political foe Yulia Tymoshenko from prison, there will be no agreement.

This is where it gets sticky for Yanukovich and his regime. If they accede to these demands, they run the very real risk that they will create the very circumstances that will lead to them losing the power and control that they now have. Their mismanagement of the country and their rapacious exploitation of it for personal gain has seen their political credibility eroded almost completely. There is no way that in a fair and open election they would ever be able to win again. And let’s face it – once their nationalist opponents get into power, Yanukovich and his cronies would almost certainly wind up in jail.

The one hope that Yanukovich undoubtedly harbours is that if he succeeds in securing the agreement with the EU, this would enable him to mount a propaganda campaign that would improve his image and boost his popularity sufficiently, that combined with his manipulative skills, would enable him to once again divide his enemies and maintain power in the next election. At least with this option there is hope; I am sure that he knows that under Putin there is no hope whatsoever.

Taking all this into account, I predict that over the next couple of weeks, Yanukovich will engineer the release of Tymoshenko into exile outside of Ukraine. He will secure the EU agreement and then watch out for a massive “charm” offensive geared to fooling the Ukrainian populace once again. This time though, a successful result would be far more problematic. November will definitely be an interesting month.