The Yushchenko Enigma

By Walter Kish

It is now two weeks since the election took place for Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada (VR), and everyone is still waiting to find out who is going to form the new government.  It was not supposed to work out this way.  For most of the election campaign, President Victor Yushchenko was telling everyone that the mistakes of the past would not be repeated, that he had learned his lessons, that the new alliance between himself and the Tymoshenko forces was solid and should the newly reconstituted Orange coalition gain a majority, a new government and Prime Minister would be announced within days.

The election came and went and Yulia Tymoshenko surprised everyone with an exceptionally strong showing, gaining enough votes to push the Orange forces into a majority position in the VR.  It seems fate and the heavens were aligned and the majority of Ukrainians could now breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to perhaps finally having a government they could trust.

Alas, it was not to be.  In a move as shocking as it was incomprehensible, right after the vote count became clear, Yushchenko announced that he wanted all the major parties to get together and form a “grand coalition” that would include current Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich’s Party of Regions.  Even the people in Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine Party were stunned.  After all, hadn’t he tried this before, only to see Yanukovich, once in power, undermine and whittle away almost all of the Presidential powers with an air that smacked of little more than contempt?  Just what exactly had Yushchenko “learned” from his previous ineffective and naїve political manoeuvrings?

His basic argument was that with the instability and divisions in the Ukrainian body politic, a coalition was necessary to prevent further political chaos and anarchy.  Although that may have some idealistic and theoretical merit, pragmatically, including Yanukovich and the Party of Regions in any government is like having the metaphorical fox guarding the hen house. 

Coalitions only work when all parties agree to cooperate in good faith.  Anyone who believes that Yanukovich and the Regions have the best interests of Ukraine at heart rather than their bank accounts is hopelessly naїve.  People of that ilk are not interested in sharing power.  They have the same inherited mindset that has made Vladimir Putin the absolute autocrat in Russia.

Yushchenko’s misguided attempt at statesmanship reminds me of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain during WWII gloating that he had gotten an agreement from Hitler that would ensure “peace in our time”.  With some politicians, the only language that they understand is power, and it is strange that after all that has happened, Yushchenko still hasn’t figured out what makes Yanukovich tick.

Fortunately, the current Orange leadership no longer takes direction from Yushchenko.  Tymoshenko has made it quite clear and in no uncertain terms that there is no way she would enter into any kind of coalition with the Party of Regions.  One leader of the Our Ukraine – People's Self Defence bloc, Yuriy Lutsenko, reiterated that the only coalition he is interested in is the one between Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko bloc.  By the end of last week, Yushchenko had backed away from his original proposal, and indicated his willingness to accept the formation of a government by the Orange forces with Tymoshenko as Prime Minister.

The anticipated announcement of a new government soon will no doubt herald a new phase in the ongoing political struggles in Ukraine, and it will be interesting to see how Tymoshenko deals with the many challenges that are likely to be tossed at her.  One thing we can count on is that she will not waffle in indecisiveness and confusion like Yushchenko has so often done in the past.

As for Yushchenko, this latest political blunder has just added another nail to the coffin of his political career.  What was left of his credibility with all those that made the Orange Revolution has been irretrievably blown away.  It is a tragedy worthy of Shakespeare.