Ukrainian Political Comic Opera

By Walter Kish

For those of you who thought that the farce that passes for Ukrainian politics couldn’t get any worse, the last few weeks have certainly proved otherwise.  As you may recall, President Yushchenko finally got tired of the ongoing feud with his supposed ally in government, Yulia Tymoshenko, dissolved Parliament and called for a new election in early December. 

Now any rational politician would be reluctant to call an election when all the polls agree overwhelmingly that said politician’s popularity has been dropping precipitously and was within easy reach of the big “nul” (zero); but not President Yushchenko.  Despite the near certainty that what remains of the pro-presidential faction would be effectively wiped out in the upcoming election, our dear Victor Andriyovich is nonetheless plunging ahead like a moth into the proverbial flame.

This was confirmed by a nationwide survey last week that showed that not only a significant majority of the population (67.6%) disapproved of the President calling an election, but more tellingly, an even greater majority (81.7%) did not trust him as their leader.  The same survey also found that if a Presidential election were held tomorrow, Yushchenko would only receive an embarrassing 4.3% of the vote, while his erstwhile opponent Yulia Tymoshenko would receive the most votes and likely become President.

These elections could not come at a worse time. Ukraine is being particularly hard hit by the current global economic crisis.  The IMF has proposed a $16.5 billion bailout aid package, but would justifiably like to see a stable government in place before it forks out that kind of cash.  Prime Minister Tymoshenko has rejected the President’s call for new elections, arguing that it would be unconscionable to do so when the country is in such deep crisis.  With the President’s cooperation, she has stated she could form a workable new coalition government, but claims the President has irrationally sabotaged all efforts at doing just that.

In response, she has put some teeth into her objections, by refusing to allow Parliament to approve the funds to stage an election.  Without the funding, elections cannot practically take place.  So, once again Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are locked in an impasse, engaged in a titanic struggle of wills and ego.  If not for the possible tragic consequences to the Ukrainian economy and the nation’s future, this would be ideal fodder for a wonderful comic opera.

So what are the possible scenarios for the immediate future?  If some compromise is reached and an election does take place, then more than likely, Tymoshenko would return as Prime Minister with a stronger mandate and more seats in Parliament, while both Yushchenko’s popularity as well as authority would effectively become non-existent.

Even if she doesn’t get an outright majority in Parliament, with the increased support and additional seats she almost certainly would get, she would undoubtedly have enough leverage to form an even stronger coalition in Parliament than she does now.  With that, she could complete the task of legislating away, with the Party of Regions’ eager support, whatever remaining powers the President has and make the post strictly a symbolic head of state.

If the crisis deepens and leads to early Presidential elections, Tymoshenko would also undoubtedly win that contest. With the combination of presidential powers as well as her parliamentary support, she might finally be able to form a stable and longer term government.

In either case, President Yushchenko is done as a leader, having blown an incredible historical opportunity to put Ukraine on the right track to the future. His rule will be remembered in history as both a tragedy and a farce. The Ukrainian people deserve better.