Crunch Time for Kyiv on Europe
By Steven Pifer
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New York Times October 10, 2013 --President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine is close to achieving a key foreign policy goal: signing an association agreement with the European Union at the Vilnius summit meeting in November that would deepen his country’s integration with Europe. But he is not there yet. Releasing the jailed opposition leader Yulia V. Tymoshenko would guarantee a signing. Keeping her in prison risks gambling with Ukraine’s future.
On Oct. 4, the former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former President Alexander Kwasniewski of Poland announced that Tymoshenko has accepted a proposal to travel to Germany for medical treatment. They have asked Yanukovych to release her from prison.
Addressing the annual Yalta European Strategy Conference on Sept. 20, Yanukovych reaffirmed the importance he attaches to signing the association agreement. He showed no flexibility, however, regarding Tymoshenko, who was arrested in 2011 and convicted on charges of abuse of power in a case that was widely seen as politically motivated.
At the same Yalta conference, Kwasniewski and other senior European participants noted that the Ukrainian authorities had made progress in meeting E.U. conditions for signing the association agreement. But they also made clear that something must be done about the problem of selective justice in Ukraine.
The E.U. Council of Ministers expects to decide in late October whether to sign the association agreement. The question currently divides the Union’s member states. If the council voted today, a significant number of council members would most likely vote no, believing that Kyiv has not yet done enough to meet E.U. conditions.
On the other hand, were Yanukovych to release Tymoshenko and permit her to travel abroad for medical treatment, the vote almost certainly would turn out yes. (While the E.U. conditions center on principles rather than individuals, Tymoshenko’s treatment has become the litmus test of the Yanukovych government’s readiness to end selective prosecution.)
So the question boils down to this: Is Yanukovych, despite his personal antipathy toward Tymoshenko, willing to let her go? Or will he gamble that his government can do just enough to meet E.U. conditions without freeing her? It is a big bet, and the costs of miscalculation are high.
If Ukraine and the European Union do not sign the association agreement in Vilnius, neither Brussels nor Kyiv has a Plan B. Other E.U. business and Ukraine’s 2015 presidential election could well put the question on the back- burner for two years, leaving the relationship in an uncertain state.
That would represent a significant defeat for Kyiv and for Yanukovych, who has made European integration a high priority since he became president in 2010. Today, he has strong political motives to secure the association agreement. Integration is popular with average citizens, and “I brought Ukraine into Europe” could prove a powerful theme for his expected re-election campaign. The association agreement also appeals to the Ukrainian business community, as it includes a comprehensive free-trade arrangement that will open much of the E.U. market to Ukrainian exports and spur economic growth.
Moreover, a failure to sign the agreement would leave Kyiv with reduced freedom for manoeuvre vis-à-vis Moscow, which desperately wants to turn Ukraine away from the West and toward the Russian-led Customs Union. In July and August, the Russians signalled their displeasure over Kyiv’s course by imposing trade blocks on Ukrainian imports.
The hardball tactics backfired. Yanukovych, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and other senior Ukrainian officials have reaffirmed the objective of signing the association agreement. Opposition parties in the Rada set aside their long political feud with the pro- government Party of Regions to produce large majorities to pass reform laws to meet E.U. requirements.
Moscow’s heavy-handed approach also raised concern in Brussels. E.U. officials and the European Parliament deplored the Russian pressure. Individual Union member states now may be more sympathetic toward Ukraine — though it is not clear if that sympathy will temper the view that Ukraine needs to do more, including taking action on Tymoshenko.
Yanukowvych did not reveal his final hand on the matter in Yalta. But time grows short. Allowing Tymoshenko to go abroad for medical treatment would win him a signing ceremony in Vilnius. Will he take the necessary step and go for the sure thing — securing an association agreement that would give a major boost to Ukrainian-E.U. links, Kyiv’s European course and perhaps his own political future?
Or will he attempt to squeeze by without action on Tymoshenko and bet that the European Union will nevertheless agree to sign? Much is at stake, and this is no time for Yanukovych to miscalculate.
Steven Pifer is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.