The Ukrainian Election that Was Almost Null and Void

By Wolodymyr Derzko

Before leaving for Ukraine last winter to be an election observer, I speculated with friends on what clever and novel strategies might be employed by the pro-Kuchma forces to stay in power and to thwart Victor Yushchenko’s rising popularity. There were the obvious well-known ones such as manipulating the government’s administrative resources, but I felt the government in power had other surprises up its sleeve.

Even today, many people are left scratching their heads and wondering at the choice of the pro-Kuchma camp – Victor Yanukovych, a two-time convicted felon – as the preferred candidate for president when, frankly,  there were so many other and better choices, Serhiy Tyhipko, for one.

I recall discussing two potential scenarios with friends that would explain this puzzling selection: the puppet-president option and the null-and-void election scenario.

Everyone conceded that former president Leonid Kuchma was trying at all costs to manipulate the situation in order to stay in power. Putting myself in his shoes, I reasoned  that he was creating the conditions whereby he would be granted full immunity from prosecution for all his illegal deeds while in office (as the publicly disclosed Melnychenko tapes have pointed to).

With a puppet president like Yanukovych running the country, it wasn’t inconceivable that Kuchma could then be nominated to the position of prime minister and would retain more power under the new constitutionally mandated parliamentary-presidential system of government than he had as president. Thankfully, that didn’t come to pass.

The second scenario, the null-and-void election option, led to a heated debate and was one that even I didn’t take too seriously at the time.

According to Ukrainian law, if an election does not take place – or vybory ne bidbulysia – the incumbent president, in this case, Kuchma, could retain power for a third term. The plan was to eliminate the top-two presidential candidates through various means. Entice both pro- and anti-Kuchma forces into so many countless election violations that the courts would rule that the “elections never took place” or on the extreme side of the spectrum, assassinate Yushchenko and blame a lame duck Yanukoych. Again, thank God neither happened.

On Thursday, November 3, Professor Serhiy Komisarenko, an eminent Ukrainian biochemist, a former presidential candidate and Ukraine’s former ambassador to both Britain and Ireland, started his Canada-wide speaking tour in Toronto at the invitation of the Royal Society of Canada.

On two occasions, both at the Munk Centre for International Studies at the University of Toronto and later in the evening at an public event hosted by the Shevchenko Scientific Society, at the KUMF Gallery, Komisarenko stunned the entire audience with his contention that, in fact, Kuchma was probably planning to carry out the null-and-void election option.

Giving former president Kuchma a failing grade for honesty and integrity, but acknowledging that he is a supreme manipulator of both people and situations, Komisarenko detailed Kuchma’s plan to assassinate Yushchenko, remove Yanukovych from the political scene, and to then continue to rule Ukraine in the autocratic fashion that he was accustomed to.

Komisarenko went on the explain that, as luck would have it, the dose of dioxin or agent orange  (how ironic that agent orange was used in the attempt to kill the political leader of the Orange Revolution) administered to Yushchenko, though it was high enough to kill most men, didn’t have the intended lethal effect. This was likely owing to Yushchenko’s excellent health and to what he had eaten at the time of the assassination attempt. It would seem that his love for caviar saved his life: The fish fats in caviar interfered with the absorption of this deadly poison.

It makes me shudder to think how close we came to an election result that most people could not have conceived of at the time and how Ukraine could have been in a far different place than it is today. But it goes to show that as in all politics, especially in Ukraine, continue to expect the unexpected.

W. Derzko works in strategic planning and is an associate of CERES at the Munk Center for International Studies at the University of Toronto.