The Next Revolution in Ukraine?

By Wolodymyr Derzko

Revolutions are funny things. You never know what cluster of events could trigger them. In 2004, it was the election falsification that catalyzed the Orange Revolution, a process that wasn’t an overnight phenomenon, but took several years to plan and execute.

Is Ukraine on the cusp of the next revolution or is it a false start?

The pending tax codex legislation, as well, to a much lesser extent, the new labour codex and language law has mobilized small and medium-sized business entrepreneurs (SME) as well as ordinary citizens from Lviv to Luhansk and Sumy to Sevastopil.

Businesses and the political opposition will continue to fight against the new Tax Code by continuing its protests against the adoption of new tax regulations, said Chair of the Committee on the Protection of Entrepreneurs’ Issues Oksana Prodan. She noted that on November 16, entrepreneurs will again convene in front of the Verkhovna Rada and on November 17-18, the Ukrainian opposition will speak about the oppression of small businesses in Ukraine at a meeting of the Union of Small and Medium Businesses in Brussels. The opposition points out that the penalization of enterprises will become the main line-item on the revenue side of the national budget of Ukraine. The main goal of this legislation is to decimate SMEs and the middle class which by in-large supported the opposition in previous elections.

Just like in the Orange Revolution, social media and cell phone networks are again playing a key role in organizing protests around Ukraine. One Canadian travelling in Kyiv reported in the second week of November on evolving events: “Students were actively handing out flyers calling people to be ready to hit the streets Monday night or Tuesday.  Looks like there is a possibility of a snap vote on the language law as soon as Tuesday, and in doing so, pass something so fast that the opposition has virtually no time to mobilize against it.”  

With regard to the tax legislation protest, the public is being encouraged to call a string of cell phone numbers and to register their contact information at http://chesni-podatky.org. A converging protest against the language law is being organized online. (see http://www.maidan.org.ua/static/viol/1289575805.html) 

The government appears to be in a panic mode and in denial.

   Although the possibility of successfully starting the impeachment of Yanukovych, as reported on Maidan.org is frankly quite low due to the new old constitution, the possibility of mass protests and a country-wide national strike is realistically quite high.

On November 5, about 3,000 Lviv businessmen protested against the new Tax Code, demanding that representatives of small business organizations be involved in the development of an alternative proposal of the Tax Code.

Unian estimated that as many as 50,000 people will be arriving from all points of Ukraine to protest in front of the Verkhovna Rada, before the second reading of the tax code legislation.

By the time you read this story in print, Ukraine could be well on the way to a process of regime change - peaceful or not.

But not everyone on the ground is in agreement with the truly complex situation in Ukraine.

One Canadian expatriate businessman wrote me saying:  “There is no chance of an impeachment and even less chance of a revolt with people in the streets, etc. Whoever started the cycle and whomever else has picked up on it, doesn’t quite understand what is occurring here. These notes serve only to make the diaspora look stupid (in everyone’s eyes, not just the Party of Regions). Secondly, the party Svoboda is a provocateur - it is funded by the Party of Regions. They are there to provide Yanukovych with a convenient opposition and to suck votes away from a normal liberal-democratic party.”

Rolling events that started earlier in November will surely tell.

 Wolodymyr (Walter) Derzko is a senior fellow at the Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab) and a lecturer in the master’s of arts program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, Ontario College of Art & Design (OCAD) University in Toronto, Canada.