by Oksana Bashuk Hepburn
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Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper is spot on.
Speaking last week in Toronto his message was this: Ukraine is as much in danger from Russia as from its own internal rot. Both disasters may be avoided by choosing the European integration option. The drop-dead date for this salvation is looming. What will the beleaguered president of Ukraine, decide at the Vilnius Summit? The EU’s free trade agreement or Russia’s?
Russia is determined to keep Ukraine from the EU; that in itself should be a key motivator in doing the opposite given the oppressive centuries-old relationship with the nasty neighbor. For now, it has initiated a trade war, built high barbed wire fences along parts of Ukraine’s boarder and started military scare tactics. In response, Yanukovych has denied--to date-- Russia’s Customs Union but his latest visits show a trapped man, desperate to pursue the option that is most favorable to protecting him and his ill begotten wealth.
Russia’s anger at the prospect of losing to Europe is not restricted to Ukraine alone. Reminding the Europeans of the cold they faced in 2009 when energy supplies were turned off, Russia is threatening a rerun should Ukraine sign and is putting pressuring on Lithuania, the summit host, and Moldova, another candidate for European integration at Vilnius.
However, seeing the initial strong-arm tactics with Ukraine failing, Russia is reversing: sweetening the offer with a critically important energy deal comprising lower prices and reduced debt burden if it joins the Customs Union. And, it promises loans for the fiscal crisis that is hovering over Ukraine.
Should the president drop the EU any latitude that the Europeans might give, his corrupt regime will vanish. He will become Europe’s premier persona non grata. The United States, and others, may initiate personal sanctions. Like rats abandoning a sinking ship, his oligarch “family,” seeking legitimization of wealth via the EU option, will scatter. There will be schisms within his Party of Regions. The ongoing demonstrations against the president’s regime are likely to escalate.
Despite this, Yanukovych initiated two meetings with Vladimir Putin since scolding him in Kyiv last summer for playing political games. Both were in Russia. Last week’s meeting was so hush-hush, public broadcasters denied that it even took place.
Yuriy Lutsenko, Ukraine’s former interior minister and a recently pardoned political prisoner, says that the most probable offer may be this: Putin will allow him to stand for the 2015 presidential elections uncontested by another pro-Russian candidate. Such an offer would buy Yanukovych what he currently needs most: time and, as a parliamentarian, immunity from prosecution.
However, whatever Putin is offering is not ironclad, given that Ukraine’s president is still hedging. Previous experience must tell him all may be naught if Russia is true to form. He already gave up Ukraine’s defense and security structures to Russia, and Sevastopol to its Black Sea Fleet for helping him to win the last elections then accused Russia of negotiating in bad faith.
So what does he need to favor the EU option?
This is a most delicate moment. The man feels cornered as the European option holds pitfalls for him too. He will need to legitimize shady arrangements, punish illegal business allies, stop nepotism and abuse of office. He will be required to hold free and fair elections, allow freedom of the press, revert to the rule of law and support democratic values. Briefly: become more like Europe than Russia.
Despite the pain, the European option means certain gains. There are rewards for taking this step. Ukraine will receive help in the form of institutional restructuring in parliament, judiciary and the bureaucracy. Free trade arrangements, cancellation of visa restrictions, debt repayment, fiscal collapse prevention and more are already in the document or will follow. Closer European integration will give Ukraine protection from Russia’s wrath by the globe’s democratic states. All this will benefit him as well. Additionally, Yanukovych will become a historic figure: the man who cemented Ukraine to Europe. Above all, he will get what he seeks most in this beleaguered hour: he will buy time to, perhaps, save himself.
He can still do this by freeing Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s Constitution gives him the power. The incarcerated Tymoshenko has shifted positions to make this possible. Incredulously, he is yet to be convinced that he, not she, is the real obstacle to his own demise. His indecisiveness is sabotaging his future; squeezing him into a corner from which there may be no escape for his illegal acts, misgovernment or bad deals with bad neighbors His waffling is like Russian roulette. He is holding the pistol to his head; most of the chambers have already been emptied.
Now is a good time for all of Ukraine’s friends—Canada, the first Western country to recognize Ukraine, the United States, the leader of the democratic world and all concerned EU members to push him. Call Yanukovych and convince him to help himself. His future, that of Ukraine, the EU’s and the entire democratic world depends on it.
The Canadian Group for Democracy for Ukraine is contacting Harper’s office, requesting such a call.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, a former Canadian government executive, is a founding member of the Canadian Group for Democracy in Ukraine.