Election Ennui

By Volodymyr Kish

The presidential election campaign sputters along in Ukraine, overshadowed by the population’s more pressing concerns over which disaster will strike them first - the deadly H1N1 flu virus or the country’s continuing descent into bankruptcy. 

The H1N1 flu epidemic continues to ravage Ukraine, with some million and a half people affected and twenty five to thirty people dying every day.  More than three hundred and fifty people have died so far this month and there appears to be no end in sight. What is obvious to most observers is that Ukraine’s government was caught completely unprepared for the outbreak, with not a single dose of vaccine stockpiled in advance and no preparations of any kind having been made despite ample warnings from world health authorities going back to last spring.  It is but another indication that Ukraine has not had any kind of effective government for quite some time now.

The worst part is that the virus outbreak has now become highly politicized with all sides in the campaign using it as ammunition to discredit their opponents.  Rumour, panic and conspiracy are stoked by politicians of all stripes, obscuring the facts, hampering relief efforts and generating both fear and cynicism amongst the Ukrainian population.  I have talked to contacts and relatives throughout Ukraine and have heard a broad gamut of the most incredible stories:  there is no epidemic – it is all made up and a plot to postpone the elections; it is actually biological warfare inflicted on Ukraine by the Russians; there is H1N1 flu, but the effects are grossly exaggerated – fewer people have died this year than did last year of the standard seasonal flu; it is God’s punishment on Ukraine for allowing such corruption to exist;  it is no accident that the H1N1 flu hit Western Ukraine the hardest – it was a deliberately engineered attack on nationalist Ukrainians by the Russified eastern oligarchs.  The rumours and conspiracies are endless.

Ukraine’s public health woes come at the worst possible time from an economic perspective.  In mid-November,  the Euro currency took a bath on the European stock exchanges on serious worries that Ukraine is rapidly approaching the financial abyss of defaulting on its national debt and will in effect become officially bankrupt.  This has caused yet another rift between the Ukrainian parliament and President Yushchenko.  The Verkhovna Rada voted several weeks ago to amend the current budget to add an emergency allocation of one billion Hryvnia to fight the epidemic.  The President promptly vetoed the bill claiming that it would only force the government to print more money thereby fuelling inflation and further devaluing the national currency.  Predictably, Prime Minister Tymoshenko accused the President of an “act of sabotage” and vowed to override the veto with support from the Party of Regions.

The direness of Ukraine’s economic situation was further aggravated by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) refusal to give Ukraine the next instalment of a previously agreed to $3.4 billion credit.  This is in reaction to the Ukrainian parliament recently voting to dramatically increase social spending next year to the tune of some 70 billion UAH (Hryvnias).  The IMF views this as dangerously irresponsible spending that will lead to runaway inflation.  The spending increase has “election campaign promises” written all over it, and reflects the current government’s unwillingness or inability to deal with financial realities.  The IMF has been urging Ukrainian governments for years to get their financial house in order by reforming corrupt and inefficient social spending practices left over from the Soviet era, as well as curbing the significant leakage of public monies into the pockets of corrupt officials and politicians.

So Ukraine goes to the polls again in a couple of month’s time with seemingly little progress made in terms of securing either political competence or stability.  The choices for President are downright discouraging – a failed hero and incumbent President of dubious governing competence, an oligarchic political manipulator more Russian than Ukrainian, a charismatic nationalist populist who is a shrewd and effective politician but who may be dangerously unqualified to run a national economy, and a whole bunch of “wannabees” whose motivations for running are largely suspect.  On top of all this, the main political parties and factions recently enacted major “electoral reform” that appears to have been motivated less at making the election process fair and transparent, and more towards maximizing the opportunities for electoral manipulation and fraud.

It is no surprise then, that the vast majority of Ukrainians are suffering from election ennui, and have little hope that anything good will come out of these elections.