Ka-Putin!

By Volodymyr Kish

Vladimir Putin suffered an inglorious defeat in the recent parliamentary elections in the Russian Federation when his United Russia party, despite extensive electoral manipulation by the government, failed to get a majority of the popular vote. When the dust settled, Putin’s party came in with somewhere around 49% of the votes cast, resulting in a much reduced majority in the Russian Duma, where he lost 77 seats, and a significant blow to his reputation and prestige. Even worse, there have been growing protests in the aftermath of the elections, indicating that his popularity is waning sharply and his hold on power is no longer unshakeable.

Ever since he came into office, first as President and more recently as Prime Minister, Putin deliberately created and cultivated an image, and some would go further and say mythology, of a highly intelligent, virile, powerful and popular leader, one who would return Russia to its former glory as a world power. Until recent years, one would have to say that he had succeeded admirably in this endeavour.

Of late though, the mythology has begun to crack, as Russians increasingly are coming to realize, that Putin, despite his sophisticated veneer, is just the latest in a long series of tyrants who is more interested in the allure of absolute power than the welfare of his subjects. Despite his attempts to control the media and spin all news and information to his ends, the omniscient power of the Internet and wireless technology has succeeded in demonstrating to the Russian people that their government is one of the most corrupt and self-serving in the world. It has also become clear that the vast natural wealth of their country is being increasingly concentrated in the hands of Putin’s chosen elite, while the masses continue to suffer deteriorating Third World conditions. Political persecution, imprisonment and even assassination of journalists and political opponents have shown that Putin, notwithstanding his carefully constructed public image, is just another KGB thug, and the Russian people are finally beginning to realize just that.

The events of the past few weeks and the growing opposition within Russia have led many to speculate that this may be the start of an unstoppable spiral that will bring Putin down in the not too distant future. As recent history has effectively demonstrated, no authoritarian government, regardless of its outward apparent strength, is safe if it loses the popular support of the majority of its people. There is a tipping point which when reached, can cause the disintegration of any well-entrenched regime within a surprisingly short period of time. Mubarak and Qaddafi are good recent examples of that reality, and Syria’s President Assad is well on the way to being the next victim of the popular will of the people. Putin is no different. He too is subject to those same turbulent forces that, fuelled by popular discontent, and co-ordinated by modern communications and media technology, can bring down the most entrenched regime.

Obviously, Putin will not be easy to displace from power. He remains a shrewd, calculating and intelligent political foe and will have no qualms at using whatever methods and force are necessary to stay in charge. Nonetheless, his current situation and hold on power also has its tipping point and recent events have moved him much closer to it.

His increased domestic vulnerability holds another danger for Ukraine and Russia’s neighbours. It is a traditional tactic for Russian leaders who get into trouble at home to create artificial conflicts with neighbours to distract a restive population, and get them to focus instead on external threats whether they are real or not. It is highly likely that Putin, in an attempt to distract the Russian citizenry from his internal failings, will “create” a crisis with one of his neighbours and use that as an excuse to demand unity and solidarity in the face of “foreign aggression” or provocation. Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya – all are prime candidates for this kind of political manipulation. It remains to be seen whether the Russian masses will fall for this type of manipulation once again.

It will be interesting to see how the situation in Russia plays out over the next twelve months or so. Although I am reluctant to make any definitive predictions, I am beginning to believe that this is the beginning of the end of the Putin era. Putin will be “ka-Putin” in the not too distant future!