Prognostications

By Volodymyr Kish

The end of a year is usually taken as license for pundits like me to make bold prognostications as to how the Universe will unfold in the coming year.  Having probably imbibed more Christmas spirits this past week than is good for my mental acuity, I will herein take a stab at a few predictions as to what we can expect to see in 2012 that is of interest and consequence to the Ukrainian community.

First and foremost, I believe we will finally see the end of the wretched Yanukovych era.  After several years of inept Presidential rule that has seen even his loyal Donetsk minions protesting and scoffing at his ludicrous acts and pronouncements, the powers behind his throne will decide to cut their losses, and engineer the departure of this sorry excuse of a President.  As most everyone knows, Viktor Yanukovych is but a front man for a powerful cabal of oligarchs who really pull the strings in Ukrainian politics, and they are shrewd enough to know when their Presidential pawn has outlived his usefulness.  If he agrees to go quietly, he may be allowed to retire gracefully for reasons of “health” to enjoy his dubiously acquired booty.  If he makes a fuss, he may become the victim of a more “terminal” exit.  It is already well known that Yanukovych seldom ventures in public without massive security precautions.  I am sure he is already hearing the sinister footsteps behind him.

In a related vein, Russia’s current Tsar, “Putin the First”, will be hearing similar footsteps. No doubt, he was more than a little shocked and surprised by the precipitous decline of his popularity and political strength in the recent elections for the Russian Duma (Parliament).  From a position of near invincibility only a few years ago, his personal popularity has plummeted as the Russian populace awakes from its servile slumbers.  No matter how much Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his police state minions try to manipulate the media, the spread of the Internet and modern communications technology has ensured that the toiling masses sooner or later will become aware of how they are being exploited.  They have also recently come to realize that no autocrat or tyrant is invulnerable.  They have seen how quickly other seemingly invincible despots like Qaddafi or Mubarak have fallen.  The momentum is building.  From a few thousand protesters immediately after the elections, the numbers have grown each week, to where this past weekend it was estimated that some 120,000 demonstrated loudly and purposefully in Moscow.

Putin, of course, is not lacking in smarts and cunning, so his departure will likely be a drawn out affair.

Nonetheless, he will face increasing pressure in the coming year as public dissatisfaction with his authoritarian and corrupt rule continues to grow.  As his political strength declines, the Ukrainian oligarchs who have sought to strengthen economic and political relations with Russia will undoubtedly have second thoughts about tying their fortunes to a leaking ship, and may shift their attentions away from Russia and perhaps focus more on the European option.

Turning to the home front, I think the most interesting development for the Ukrainian community in Canada will be a welcome resolution to the divisive issue of the Canadian Museum for Human Rights.  For several years now, a heated debate has raged over the purpose and exhibits policy of this new museum currently under construction in Winnipeg.

The Ukrainian community, led by the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, has waged a vociferous campaign over the fact that the Museum intends to have only one permanent exhibit that will focus on the Jewish Holocaust, whilst other genocides, such as the Holodomor or the Armenian Genocide, will rate only temporary or more generic treatment.  This stand has gained increasing support from other ethnic communities in Canada, and considerable pressure is being brought to bear on the Canadian government which is funding the lion’s share of the cost of building the Museum. 

In addition, the Museum which was originally slated to open in 2012, will now be delayed until 2014, and is suffering from significant cost overruns – the current estimated cost to complete it now stands at $350 million, compared to the initial estimate of $265 million.  Prime Minister Harper has made it clear that the government will not allocate any further funds to this project to cover the overruns.  To top it all off, the Chairman of the Museum’s Board resigned last week.

I will speculate that this current mess the Museum finds itself in will spur a complete re-assessment of the Museum’s goals and governance, out of which will come, to be hopeful, a more pragmatic approach that is more representative and in keeping with the needs and views of Canada’s diverse ethnic communities.

Undoubtedly, it will be an interesting year!