Pre-Election Strategic Issues Facing Ukraine

By Walter Derzko

When Moscow cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine during a price dispute at the beginning of 2006, the world saw that the Kremlin is ready to use energy as a weapon. While the gas issue has received most of the world media’s attention, other equally important strategic issues face Ukraine. As Ukraine prepares for parliamentary elections in March, according to Newsweek magazine, “Moscow is doing everything in its power to ensure that wayward former satellites return to its orbit.”

In the most recent political attack Russia embargoed Ukrainian meat and diary exports in January, citing contraventions in veterinary and sanitary norms, but not giving concrete examples. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister stated that Ukraine might retaliate by banning Russian meat and plant imports, but noted that trade wars do not benefit anyone.

This dispute has serious implications due to the volume of trade between the two countries. In 2005 Ukraine imported about $355 million in agricultural plant products and $102 million in meat products from Russia. Furthermore, it could escalate to other strategically important products and services such as sugar, steal, pipes and chemicals, surplus electricity, (which Ukraine exports to Russia and which Russia depends on during local gas shortages), and possibly uranium, (which Ukraine mines but sends to Russia for re-processing).

Border problems are also likely to flare up in Kerch and the Sea of Azov.

Other pre-election sore spots include: Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet; the Russian language-question; the Russian Orthodox Church’s active support of pro-Russian political factions; the call for dual citizenship for “fraternal Slavic brothers”; the separation question in Crimea; federalism and division of powers between different levels of government; problems with Euro-integration and membership in NATO and WTO; a brain-drain of Ukrainian workers to Russia; and new pressures from the opposition, such as calls for Ukraine to join the common economic space with Russia. Expect the opposition to level more corruption charges against Victor Yushchenko and his immediate entourage, targeting not just Ukrainian voters but the world media and international bodies. A Moscow-based media wide disinformation campaign is a given.

But Ukraine is fighting back. On January 24 Yushchenko issued a pre-election decree on public order. It states that the Interior Ministry, the Security Service and local authorities shall “adopt measures to prevent any calls to liquidate the independence of Ukraine, to change its constitutional order by force, to breach its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to undermine its security, to seize state power, to propagate war, violence, ethnic, racial, religious and other conflicts; to prevent any encroachments on human rights and freedoms, people’s health, other materials including such calls and slander affecting political parties and their leaders, election blocs and candidates.” The decree also instructs the various ministries to hold a public awareness campaign on electoral legislation.

Ukraine is also tightening its borders. Ukraine surprised Russia by its reluctance to invite CIS observers for the upcoming elections and by an entry ban for non-desirables. At the end of January, Russian citizen Kirill Frolov, of the Institute of CIS Countries, was detained at the Simferopol airport and barred from entering Ukraine. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry’s press service head Vasyl Filipchuk said that the ministry reserves the right to propose bans to prevent the entry of “unwanted foreign citizens if they on several occasions made rude and offensive statements against Ukraine and its territorial integrity, inciting inter-ethnic hatred and seriously harming interstate relations, or otherwise breached international legal norms and Ukrainian laws.”

Companed with last year, the media coverage is now more balanced. The television station NTN is running election ads for Yushchenko. The 5 Kanal television channel has aired pro-presidential Our Ukraine Blo ads with the following message:  “You said 'Yes!' To freedom and Maidan. You said 'No!' To bandits and lies. You won. But they want to come back…Do not betray Maidan.” The channel has also aired opposition Party of Regions ads, depicting Party leader Victor Yanukovych, which tell voters: “A year ago, Ukraine enjoyed Europe’s highest economic growth. But today we are in crisis. Victor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions are introducing a plan for economic growth–creating more jobs, stabilizing prices, ensuring a high level of medical services and social benefits.” 

Perhaps the Ukrainian government is saving the best strategy for last. Acting Ukrainian interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko hinted that former president Leonid Kuchma and Ihor Bakay, the fugitive former head of the Directorate for State Affairs, could be brought to trial before the elections for illegally selling off state assets at fire-sale prices to their friends. It would be a coup, but unlikely in the two months left, considering how long the Gondadze trial has taken.

When will this political wrangling end? Both countries may have their attention quickly diverted away from political chaos to a natural chaos. Ukraine is planning for a possible bird flu pandemic starting in Crimea during the spring bird migration. Health Minister Yuriy Polyachenko said: “We are preparing for the worst.”

Walter Derzko works in strategic planning and is an associate of CERES, Munk Center for International Studies, University of Toronto.