Can Ukrainian Canadians see FAR?

PART 1

By Wolodymyr Derzko

The Ukrainian Canadian Community is at an Important Crossroad

 The Ukrainian Canadian Diaspora has done a credible job of managing its history and the present by setting up numerous institutions: churches, schools, museums, cultural, educational and social centres, Ukrainian media outlets (radio, TV, newspapers, magazines, InfoUkes website and e-POSHTA email on the internet) and other cultural “mega projects” over the past 30 years. However, it has all but ignored its long term future.  At best, we work and think about one to three years ahead. At today’s pace of change, that’s inadequate.

I’m amazed every time I hear university professors apologizing that they will not venture to predict or forecast the future. No wonder they feel uncomfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty-- they were never taught how to embrace it. With that mindset, capability and familiarity is not passed on their students, our future leaders. That’s ironic because we will be living the rest of our lives in the future and not the past.

There are 30 years of academic and commercially developed methods and tools in foresight research and methodology, strategic thinking and planning, managing weak signals of change, issues management, scenario planning, and environmental (sometimes called Horizon) scanning -- all tools that the community can use to anticipate emerging issues and not get blindsided as it did with the Demjaniuk, and Odynsky affairs and the larger more important  issue, the perception by some Canadians that alleged former Nazi’s are living among us in Canada (a community threat that was not managed well) or even the “Orange Revolution” (a community opportunity situation that, in my opinion, was not leveraged enough).

Individual issue champions in the Ukrainian Canadian Congress who recognize the need to apply some thinking to the future, have tried to set up foresight efforts but all were stalled by: 1) turf wars; 2) a lack of direction-who has the mandate for this? 3) a lack of volunteer man-power; 4) the “Catch 22” of the “sense and do dilemma” – if we identify an emerging issue that needs to be addressed then, we have to commit resources that we do not have, so let’s just ignore it for now and; 5) a general lack of interest and apathy about planning for the future by UCC member organizations. There is always a more urgent community fire that needs to be put out now, pushing aside  the important, long term issues that never get any thinking attention, until it hits us seemingly out of the blue.

To circumvent this dilemma, the Ukrainian Canadian community needs to urgently initiate a  new community mega project on the scope and size that we saw in the 1970’s and 1980’s -- an independent foresight and strategy resource office, created for the benefit of the entire Ukrainian Canadian community that would be charged with managing the future. Imagine an arm’s length think tank for the community -- The Ukrainian Canadian Foresight and Research office or UCFar (pronounced “U See Far” or Ukrainians See Far). Its mandate would be directed by a community-wide board of directors and advisors from its stakeholder organizations.

It can be modeled after other successful foresight and issues management projects such as the ones at the Red Cross, The United Way, B’nai Brith or other NGO’s in Canada and around the world. Even the Baptist, Protestant and Methodist churches in the USA have a formidable foresight capability.

Some startup capital is required, followed by an aggressive fundraising effort to create an endowment of over one million dollars that would cover the annual operating costs of paying a full time, professional executive director in charge of community development and foresight, office expenses and some project-related costs. Federal and provincial government funding should be available for this community development project.

Activist Myroslava Oleksiuk, who for many of these reasons, seven years ago founded the internet newspaper e-POSHTA, echoes her support: ….”Of course, some money is required.  Those in our community, who have money to spare, do not seem to find it a priority or to understand that the core of our success is the establishment of a professional organization where the right people are paid to meet goals.  They in turn would motivate and be supported by a volunteer base.”

There are no lack of current and emerging issues for this new body to explore, both threats and opportunities that our community will be forced to address, sooner or later (continued in PART 2)

Wolodymyr Derzko is an Associate of CERES, Munk Center University of Toronto and an expert on strategic thinking and planning and foresight.