Continuing Headaches

By Walter Kish

I keep reading the news from Ukraine hoping to see a sign that things are on the right road to recovery from the acrimony, divisiveness and venality that have marked Ukrainian politics since independence.  Unfortunately, all I see is more of the same.  I am increasingly persuaded that self interest and greed grow faster than turnips in what used to be the former Soviet Union.

What is particularly disappointing is seeing the opportunity presented by the recently formed and fragile neo-Orange majority being squandered by the same petty internal conflicts that so ignominiously put an end to the original Orange Revolution.  It should be clear to all players that the time for real reform and constructive changes are long overdue and that a determined spirit of cooperation and engagement is required to bring Ukraine from its economic and political morass into something resembling a modern and democratic European country. The alternatives are bleak – either the autocratic model of Putin’s Russia, or a plutocracy wherein Ukraine’s oligarchic rich get richer while the masses sink into Third World levels of poverty and powerlessness.

Prime Minister Tymoshenko has indeed made efforts at instituting progressive reform, yet she is being seriously hampered, not so much by the reactionary forces of Yanukovich’s opposition Regions forces, as by the lack of support and often obstructionist tactics of President Yushchenko and his administrative cohorts.  Many political analysts believe that Yushchenko still suffers the delusion that he can get re-elected in the next Presidential Elections in 2010 and that the only real competition he has is Yulia Tymoshenko.  As a result, many believe that most of his actions are based less on what is best for the country as opposed to how he can undercut Tymoshenko’s popularity.

The latest gas crisis is a good example.  In the division of powers that recently came about when Tymoshenko once again became Prime Minister, , it was agreed that the President’s Our Ukraine forces were to control the external and power ministries, such as Defence and Foreign Affairs, while Tymoshenko’s Bloc would fill the more domestic oriented economic, industrial and social ministries.  When Russia threatened to cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies in January, it was clearly a problem within Yulia’s jurisdiction, and she indicated her determination to negotiate an equitable solution that would clean up on the endemic corruption that characterizes the current gas supply arrangements.  Nonetheless this did not prevent Yushchenko from flying off to Moscow and negotiating an agreement with Putin on his own.  The agreement proved to be short-lived and less than adequate, and Yulia followed up with her own visit to Moscow where the negotiations and the threats from the Russian side are still continuing.

At a time when there is no shortage of critical issues and problems to be resolved and when solidarity and cooperation between President and Prime Minister are so badly needed, President Yushchenko seems more interested in playing propaganda games and undermining Tymoshenko than doing anything constructive.  No doubt, what rankles Yushchenko most is the fact that recent polls show that Tymoshenko continues to be the most trusted and popular politician in Ukraine.

Having followed Ukrainian politics in detail for much of the past decade, I am at a loss to explain Yushchenko’s behaviour.  He is by all accounts a man of courage, honesty and integrity, yet his political judgment and actions appear to be at best, naїve, and at worst, misguided and self-destructive.

In my opinion, he should face the fact that there is no chance whatsoever that he will ever get re-elected, and the best that he can do to preserve some positive historical legacy, is to get solidly behind his Prime Minister and do everything he can in his remaining two years as President to fulfill at least some of the promises he made back in 2004.  Continuing on the current track of throwing monkey wrenches into Tymoshenko’s efforts at governing effectively will only result in him being remembered as a tragic and small minded figure incapable of dealing with the historic challenge that fate presented him.