By Walter Kish

Last week’s parliamentary elections marked a significant turning point in Ukraine’s political evolution, and gave hope that Ukraine will, in the not too distant future, have a government that truly serves its best interests. Victor Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” coalition came in first place with close to 24% of the vote. Though this may not seem impressive by Canadian standards, in Ukraine’s fractured political environment where parties and factions number in the dozens, it is a remarkable showing. This is especially true considering that Yuschenko ran a fairly low-key and modest campaign, while the pro-Kuchma “For a United Ukraine” faction could count on blatant biased coverage from the state-controlled media, the bottomless pockets of the oligarch establishment, and some obvious, though fortunately minor electoral manipulation and vote rigging. Despite these advantages, Kuchma’s party was hard-pressed to come up with 12% of the popular vote. It is obvious that, barring drastic measures, Kuchma will be history when his term as President expires in another two years.

Yulia Tymoshenko’s faction, despite strong efforts by the pro-Kuchma establishment to obstruct her campaign and discredit her personally, came in far stronger than the polls predicted, with some 7% of the popular vote and 21 candidates elected.

The other encouraging result was the fact that the Communist party, which had previously managed to come in first place through superior organization and a small but loyal following, dropped to second place with 20% of the popular vote, a drop of 4% since the last election. To make the situation worse, because of the recent electoral changes where half of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada are based on party popular vote and half on “most votes” by a candidate in each riding, the Communists will wind up with only some 66 elected deputies, or less than 15% of the seats in the Rada. It appears that the Ukrainian electorate is becoming increasingly less impressed with their reactionary, obstructionist and pro-Russian policies.

The work now begins for Yuschenko to put together a viable coalition of forces that will enable him to control the Verkhovna Rada and push through the reforms that he started while he was Prime Minister. When all the dust has settled, his “Our Ukraine” party will hold some 112 seats in the 450 seat parliament. He can probably count on the support of Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc which will hold some 21 seats. There are likely to be some 95 “Independents” elected that can be swayed on an issue by issue basis, as well as Oleksander Moroz’s Socialist Party’s 24 seats.

The other possibility that can be exploited is the fact that, with Kuchma likely to be replaced by Yuschenko in the next Presidential election, some of the wealthy and powerful oligarchs and supporters of Kuchma’s “For a United Ukraine” coalition could be easily tempted to switch allegiances and support to try and safeguard their fortunes and their futures, not to mention avoid prosecution for their less than honourable and legal past dealings. Yuschenko has demonstrated in the past, that he is a pragmatist, and with the strong showing in this election, he has lots of options and room to maneuver.

The next few months will prove interesting and decisive. In particular, Kuchma has to decide on the direction his administration must take in the remaining two years of his mandate. It is clear that he is now a “lame duck” and must deal with the reality that Yuschenko will likely succeed him as President. He can either work out an agreement with Yuschenko to co-operate with him over the next two years in exchange for a dignified retirement and immunity from prosecution, or he can try to create an effective anti-Yuschenko bloc and use whatever means he can, fair or foul, to prevent him from becoming President. Looking at his past behaviour, it is hard to predict what he will do; he is capable of either course of action.

Whatever happens, the election has given long-suffering Ukrainians new hope that the original expectations created when Ukraine finally achieved its independence now stand a realistic chance of being fulfilled in the not too distant future.