By Walter Kish
This past August 24, Ukraine celebrated the 10th anniversary of its independence. In 1991, most Ukrainians both here and in Ukraine, had high hopes that after 80 years of Soviet oppression, and centuries of subjugation by the Poles and Russians, they would finally be able to enjoy freedom and the fruits of their own labour. The euphoria was short lived. The past ten years have been marked by political turmoil, rampant unemployment, economic suffering, a deteriorating infrastructure, bureaucratic corruption and a progressive loss of hope among the majority of the population.
It is easy to list the negatives and the failures, yet things are not as disheartening as we are sometimes inclined to think. Let us not forget that at that starting point ten years ago, Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure had been eroding for decades under Soviet mismanagement. It had none of the political, financial, legal and intellectual infrastructure necessary to support a free market economy. Further, there was no practical experience in implementing and running a democratic system of government. It was unrealistic to expect that within a matter of a few years the damage of the previous century could be undone.
Every week this paper is not shy in reporting the weaknesses and failures of the Ukrainian government and its policies, or of the fractious, ineffective and divided political parties and movements in Ukraine. However, I think it also befits us that on this memorable anniversary, we should also look on the positive developments of the past decade and give credit where it is due.
First and foremost, we should be grateful that freedom and independence has been preserved and strengthened over the past ten years. Ukraine has not succumbed again to Russian domination. Despite numerous threats and pressure from reactionary Russian forces, Krawchuk and then Kuchma managed to defuse the Black Sea Fleet issue, deflect the on-going political and economic intimidation, and steer a foreign policy course that has brought Ukraine closer to Europe and the Western World, rather than again reverting to being a Russian satellite.
Secondly, despite the fact that the Ukrainian political scene continues to be turbulent, with Prime Ministers and cabinets coming and going on a regular basis, there are some encouraging signs. During the recent tenure of Yuschenko and Tymoshenko, significant reforms were enacted and progress made whose positive economic impact is continuing to this day. It is no accident that under their stewardship the Ukrainian economy grew by over six percent, the largest improvement since independence. During their tenure, tax collection and revenues increased, while the government was able to make significant inroads in paying off long delayed pension and salary payments. Though they were ultimately ousted from power, most of their reforms remained in place, and they now appear to be effectively uniting the reformist forces for a strong run in the upcoming Parliamentary and then Presidential elections. They have shown that there are competent, capable and courageous political leaders in Ukraine today.
Further, the Ukrainian economy, though sill stumbling along in the face of lethargic reforms and hobbled by graft and corruption, has nonetheless moved irretrievably forward. Collective farms are now virtually all gone and land privatization is well underway. Most small and medium sized businesses have been privatized, while many of the obsolete and subsidized manufacturing dinosaurs from the Soviet era have been shut down. Though this has caused significant unemployment in some areas, the restructuring was unavoidable and eliminated a significant drain on government revenues.
It is true that much of the privatization has resulted in state assets falling into the hands of a small well-connected, and powerful elite. Nonetheless, the principal structures of a free market economy have been established, and this, coupled with a further evolution of the democratic and legal system within Ukraine will inevitably lead, over the course of time, to a wider and broader distribution of the nation’s natural wealth.
Lastly, it is important to mention one other significant step forward. Chernobyl was finally shut down this past December. It was there that the tragic event of fifteen years ago triggered a sequence of events that many feel was ultimately responsible for the collapse of the Communist system. As well as the obvious environmental benefit, this closure is also a symbolic shutting of the door on a misguided economic and political policy of the past.
Ukraine still has a long way to go, but we should not be unduly pessimistic or lose hope.
History works on a longer timescale than we usually have the patience to endure. Just keep in mind that more has been accomplished in the past ten years, than in the previous several centuries combined.